2023 Softball Season === Can We Win Them ALL ????

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TropicalSooner
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2023 Softball Season === Can We Win Them ALL ????

Post by TropicalSooner »

OK....I know you're not supposed to ask this question (it'll jinx the season-right?).....but it's going to come up and probably sooner than later......so let go ahead and rip the Band-Aid off now and get it out of the way.

So what do you think? Can we run the table??

Over on the robo site...under the "hot takes" thread.....one cat actually asked that question..."can Oklahoma run the table?" Only answer that came back was: "yup" .
But realistically, can we???

What does history tell us? A quick look back at all the National Champions going back to its inception in 1982 shows that NO D1 team has ever gone undefeated. How close have they come? The closest to an undefeated season was UCLA back in 1982 when they finished at 54-2. The next closest records are Oklahoma in 2022 at 59-3 and 1994 Arizona at 64-3. What does this tell me? That going undefeated is hard. Very Very Hard. And looking at our schedule for the upcoming season, for the first time in a long time, that is very very hard. We are loaded with trip wires all throughout the season. Our most obvious ones are: UCLA, Duke, Washington, Stanford, Kentucky-twice!, Mississippi State-twice!, Florida State, Northwestern, Auburn-twice!, LSU!!, plus our annual nemises, Tejas and Okla State. Many of those teams made it to Super Regionals last year or are usual annual powerhouses. Heck, you might as well have thrown in Bama, Florida, Tenn, VT and Clemson and you would have almost played every team in the country that has a shot at the WCWS. It will be very easy for Coach Gasso to get our team "up" for the well known opponents on our schedule. It's the next batch of teams waiting in the wings that really concern me. Think back a minute and recall the teams last year that had us biting our nails unexpectedly: Utah (2-1), Baylor (3-1), UAB!! (2-0) TAMU (game1- 3-2)....ALL of those teams came to play. And it's those kinds of teams that I think our schedule is full of this year....Cal St Fullerton, Liberty, Utah, Wichita St, Loyola Marymount, on and on. We are the one that's circled on everybody's calendar this year. That's a lot to ask of our team, no matter how many .300 hitters and 100+ strike out pitchers you have on staff.

________________

Why we can run the table:

Offense:
We have 4 returning starters and 3 incoming transfers likely to start with .700+ Slug %'s and 126 HRs between them. This does not include Hansen who was injured much of last season but is now healthy, and Boone who was just under the Slug% number this fall but always seems to get on base somehow and likely has RF nailed down.
We have an amazing bench filled with players that would most likely be starters on any other P5 conference team.
Speed: Coor and Hodge as pinch runners add to an already impressive cast of base runners in Coleman, Lyons, Jennings, and Boone. We are in a very good position to roll over the line up to the top of the batting order with potential of having very fast runners already on base.

Defense:
I would match our defense up against anybody's.
Middle Field: SS Lyons; 2B Jennings; CF Coleman---Solid
Right side: 1B Sanders (appears to be) RF Boone
Catcher: Hansen
DP will be strong with Lee, Nugent, and Erickson.
The only question would seem to be who starts 3B and LF, and right now I would have to go with Torres at 3B and Brito back in LF.

And Pitching Staff: (OK--here we go...)
#1 Bahl === 22-1; ERA: 1.09; App: 28; IP: 141; SO: 205; B/Ave: .145; HR: 4; (in spite of being injured most of post-season)
#2 Storako == 25-8; ERA: 1.71; App: 38; IP: 200; SO: 300; B/Ave: .164; HR: 22 (Storako must have felt like she was carrying her team on her shoulders alone. Their #2 pitcher was 8-7 and only had 102 IP.
#3 May === 15-1; ERA: 1.30; App: 28; IP: 91; SO: 99; B/Ave: .144; HR: 6; (always solid--the ice queen---can come in relief and shut you down)
Deal === Appears to be a future starter--will get chances in games against weaker opponents (which we don't have a whole lot of)
Geurin===Appears to be a future reliever---also will get spot relief chances when games get one sided.
Let's hope for an injury free year for our pitchers---and if that happens, they will be a force to be reckoned with!

__________________

Why we won't:

First of all: Schedule!
See Above Paragraph on History.
The Mark Campbell Invitational will be extremely important for us. Talk about land mines!
First up is Duke. And don't forget, they have a magic weapon this year: Sydney Romero--hitting and infield coach.
Also, Duke had 6 seniors last season and graduated all of them except for one that is coming back as a Grad Sr.(covid yr). All had covid year eligibility but only one used it---I thought it strange. Maybe Duke graduates are more likely to move on after their degree? Stanford is also a strong team. They beat Alabama twice in Tuscaloosa to earn the right to host their own Super--which they then lost to Oregon St in two games. Perhaps the Alabama Regional wore them out. And after Stanford is a night game with Washington Huskies. Gabby Plain is gone and they are going through a rebuild--or rather a reload, I guess. Look for them make another run to hosting their own Supers again. And as a bonus, they will not have forgotton the 9-1 run rule thrashing we gave then in our Regional on ABC National Television two years ago. There are a lot of tripwires this first weekend and if we have a weakness or weaknesses, they will show up immediately.

Leadership---
The last several seasons had the steady hand of Elam as Captain and Alo as coach and motivator. Those two gems are no longer with us and they are very large shoes to fill. Lynnsie and Jocelyn were the steady hands that were able to calm the stormy waters the last two seasons and were big reasons we only lost 4 games 2 years ago and only 3 games last year. Do we have anyone to step into those roles? The last time we were soundly beaten and embarrassed was at the hands of UCLA, 16-3 in the 2019 Finals. Similar to what we did to Texas last year. There are only two players left on our team that remember that: Grace Lyons, and Grace Green. Last year in addition to them were our leaders Elam and Alo.

Chemistry---
This is such a vague concept but is probably the most critical. Many challenges that appear huge can be overcome when a team's personalities all click together at same time: double plays, hit and run, double steals, stolen home runs---team excitement, "I've got your back" mentality. We've seen this displayed consistently for the last two years. Do we still have that? Seven players on the team--Seven--already have two national championship rings. Is there such a thing as too many? Is the drive and excitement still there for those who've been there already?

Unknown Pitchers throwing the game of their lives---
We know this one all too well. Remember Baylor's Dariana Orme? She was two strikes away from throwing a 4 hit shutout when Jennings lifted a 3-1 pitch over the fence for a 3 run HR walkoff win. And how about UAB's Sarah Cespedes, who pushed us to seven innings last year, with only Coleman's and Elam's solo shots to break a scoreless tie in the bottom of the sixth inning. And we remember all too well the losses to Hailey Dolcini, Morgan Day, Megan Faraimo last year. This year we will see Faraimo again early on and Danielle Williams again--early this time before she's exhausted from carrying her team to the end of the season, and also Kathryn Sandercock of Florida State. But who will be the unknowns this year--the Orme's and the Cespedes's? Will it come from Loyola Marymount? Auburn? UIC???



All in all, I believe we will have a very successful season again. We have all the tools to do so. But we have to pay attention to the little things. The details. Find Leadership. Establish Chemstry. Lyons and Green need to be the steadying hands as we navigate the stormy seas this season.

Can we win three Nattys in a row? Probably.

Can we go undefeated? Probably not.
With the schedule that we have I think we have to be aware that we may lose somewhere between 3 and 6 games this year. That doesn't mean we can't bring home more gold rings.
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Post by Apoc70 »

A couple of losses during the regular season are a good thing. It's better to have a loss during the regular season to help you refocus than to have a rude awakening during the playoffs.
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

Great Post! thanks "TropicalSooner"
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Post by Bixby_Sooner »

Apoc70 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 11:17 pm A couple of losses during the regular season are a good thing. It's better to have a loss during the regular season to help you refocus than to have a rude awakening during the playoffs.
I agree with this, especially if it is a "wake up call" loss in the last week or 2 before the Regionals start.
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Post by TN Sooner »

Excellent Post to stimulate our appetite for a great season.

I think Gasso may do more “experimenting” with the line-up in the early west coast season. Lots of young guys and transfers that she’ll want to put into situations of pressure to see how they perform. Frankly, I’d love to see more of this. That whole “iron sharpens iron” doesn’t just apply to practices.

I don’t think we have the same “perception” issue of weak schedule that we’ve been saddled with (occasionally earned and sometimes not) in the last few years. Our OOC is plenty strong and no one can challenge the strength at the top of the Big 12, after filling 3 of the Final 4 slots last year. So there is less risk of eating 2-3 losses early than there used to be. Playing a team in February that you have a good chance of seeing in May? Don’t show them Bahl or Storako.
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Post by TropicalSooner »

TN Sooner wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:18 am Excellent Post to stimulate our appetite for a great season.

I think Gasso may do more “experimenting” with the line-up in the early west coast season. Lots of young guys and transfers that she’ll want to put into situations of pressure to see how they perform. Frankly, I’d love to see more of this. That whole “iron sharpens iron” doesn’t just apply to practices.

I don’t think we have the same “perception” issue of weak schedule that we’ve been saddled with (occasionally earned and sometimes not) in the last few years. Our OOC is plenty strong and no one can challenge the strength at the top of the Big 12, after filling 3 of the Final 4 slots last year. So there is less risk of eating 2-3 losses early than there used to be. Playing a team in February that you have a good chance of seeing in May? Don’t show them Bahl or Storako.
Yep. That's exactly what I was going for. We all have endured a very long season of tear down and rebuild for our football team--that will likely continue for a couple of years, so I wanted to refocus on our beloved Softball team and start to think about the opportunities ahead of us for the coming year. Start some dialogue, and enjoy dreaming and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of our team and the game we love to watch.
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Post by EMan »

Tropical, you did an outstanding job analyzing the season to come. Kudos to some great thought and insight! I'm just going to end up reiterating things you already stated. Anyway, just to answer your original question, I'm very skeptical OU will be able to run the table. Could they? Yes. Will they? Very doubtful. I've played and watched too much baseball/softball to know that in this sport more than any other, the best team doesn't always win. Sooner or later you run into that hot pitcher or team, or you just have one of those days, and before you know it, you're sitting on the wrong side of the scoreboard. So I'll say "No", and hope I'm wrong. :D

While I can't believe I'm actually going to say this, and as ridiculous as it sounds, the Sooners might be better this coming season. But they lost the game's greatest hitter of all-time (no disputing that!) and their two "glue" leaders, so how could they possibly be better, you ask? Well, for one thing, their lineup from top to bottom, and depth on the bench is off the charts. It was the same last year (as evidenced by a second consecutive national title and only 3 losses on the entire season) but I truly believe it might be even better this coming season. As you mentioned, one BIG plus is a healthy Kinzie Hansen. When she's not fighting injury, she's a complete superstar! You could see her finally rounding back into midseason form in the WCWS last year. It started with her hitting absolute lasers which were initially right at defenders, but then those ropes started to find the turf. And eventually, they found the outfield seats. Having her back at full strength will help make up for some of the impact from losing Alo. There's no way to ever completely make up for that loss, but it will certainly help mitigate it somewhat.

To me, the biggest barrier to going undefeated are those intangibles; the leadership provided by Alo and Elam. Let's face it, the "clutch" aspect those two provided can't really be measured. I guarantee you, other teams were looking at the Sooner lineup every game and saying to themselves, don't let the bottom of the order get on for Alo! The Fear Factor she provided was immeasurable. But you know what, Jennings may very well be the next fear-monger. With Sanders transferring in, you can still see a complete Murders' Row at the top of the lineup. Patty has to be looking at her team and wondering how she put together such an incredible array of talent in one dugout. And as far as the loss of leadership goes, I don't think there's any doubt Hansen, Coleman, Jennings and Bahl are up to the task.

And finally, the pitching staff. Once again, superlatives fail. The addition of Storako and Deal is icing on the cake. This team is LOADED! AGAIN! And I didn't even touch on the defense, which you pretty much already covered. As the old expression goes about having a solid defense up the middle is a key to success, weil, Patty certainly has that! Lyons is the best shortstop in the game and while I know Coleman has always wanted to play shortstop for just one game to show a lefty can do it, IMHO she was made for centerfield. She is incredibly athletic, has great range, and a superior arm. Her prowess in the field was on full display in the WCWS. (I must admit, I'm ready to get the season rolling after all this discussion! Thanks, TS!)
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Post by OU_Tom »

Great thread @TropicalSooner 👏👏👏 Love everyone's comments

So I don't think we will go undefeated. I think @EMan 's response said it better than I ever could

I also think that the odds are against us 3 peating. I read a good post somewhere about teams that 3 peated and it just does not happen.

I will say this team is as good as last year's even though there are something like 15 different players. This team has as much power as last year but unfortunately I don't think that all the power hitters can all be in the lineup at the same time since you can only have 1 first baseman and 1 DP. Hopefully Green and some of the other power hitters can become outfielders so we can get as many power hitters in the lineup as possible

This will be Jennings year to be the star. Alo got an extra year so Jennings won't catch her in the HR stats. But Jennings is a GOAT.

It is also possible that the same thing will happen to Storako as happened to another transfer, Hope Trautwein. With OUs defense, she might become OUs best pitcher. Note: Bahl was probably OUs best regular season pitcher but Trautwein probably was our best pitcher in the playoffs.

While I said odds are against OU 3peating, I do think this team can 3 peat. Of course, I thought we could 3 peat in 2018 as well
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Post by AustinTXSooner »

I think EMan covered most of what I would say. But there is one thing that I haven't seen mentioned yet...pressure. The pressure of going undefeated is huge. That's why you only see undefeated teams in sports that don't play as many games. I've coached two baseball teams that started off 15-0 and the pressure to show up and win became stifling. It's a heavy burden. Everyone expects you to win and that just makes it harder.

No matter how good you are, going undefeated requires some measure of luck. Weather conditions, injuries (both on your team and your opponent), illnesses, travel, stress...so many things are involved that you don't always see when watching a game.
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Post by inconnu »

FWIW, I don't think our team thinks much about going undefeated, but I feel certain that they are likely consumed with the pressure of being the first ever to 3-peat.
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Post by TropicalSooner »

You both bring up excellent points. I should have thought of and included them in my post.
Pressure will take it's toll somewhere along the way. We made good runs both in 2021 and in 2022...but the win streaks ended at 40 in both years--against GA in 2021 and TX in 2022.
Pressure of a three-peat is also a different kind to me. By the time we get to that point, we will have had some losses so that pressure will have vented. A three-peat has happened before, back in 1988,89, & 90--by UCLA, of course. Sharron Backus was their coach back then, and that's when games were won by scores of 3-0, 1-0, and 2-0. All three of those wins came against Fresno State by the way, the first two in Sunnyvale Calif and the 1990 win was in Okla City, the first year the WCWS was moved to OKC.
But you are right to bring up the mental aspect of the building of pressure. Hopefully the players over the last couple of years--the Hansen/Coleman class, the Lyons Class, who have played through those pressure times will be able to steady the new players, the transfers, and our underclassmen as we endure the ones we are sure to have this year.
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Post by inconnu »

I was under the impression, and I had heard or read it before that a 3-peat had not been done before. So, I never bothered to look it up. I have to admit it's a letdown to know that a 3-peat has been done before.
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Post by Sooner Cal »

Have to win 3 for a chance to make it 4. That’s the goal.
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Post by AllSooner »

TropicalSooner wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:54 pm You both bring up excellent points. I should have thought of and included them in my post.
Pressure will take it's toll somewhere along the way. We made good runs both in 2021 and in 2022...but the win streaks ended at 40 in both years--against GA in 2021 and TX in 2022.
Pressure of a three-peat is also a different kind to me. By the time we get to that point, we will have had some losses so that pressure will have vented. A three-peat has happened before, back in 1988,89, & 90--by UCLA, of course. Sharron Backus was their coach back then, and that's when games were won by scores of 3-0, 1-0, and 2-0. All three of those wins came against Fresno State by the way, the first two in Sunnyvale Calif and the 1990 win was in Okla City, the first year the WCWS was moved to OKC.
But you are right to bring up the mental aspect of the building of pressure. Hopefully the players over the last couple of years--the Hansen/Coleman class, the Lyons Class, who have played through those pressure times will be able to steady the new players, the transfers, and our underclassmen as we endure the ones we are sure to have this year.
I know this will sound like sour grapes....BUT......the quality and talent of today's athletes along with great softball expanding eastward far away from the west coast really makes it a lot tougher today than back in the late 80's. I mean a whole lot tougher. But I believe our gals are up for the challenge and Patty will keep them well grounded and focused.
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