OU Women's BB @ 10-1 - Where are they as they start Big 12 Play?

[OUBeliever56A]

With a 10-1 record, the Oklahoma Sooner Women should be feeing very good about their season at this point, But for some reason, I can't quite get myself as excited as I think I might be. Part of my trouble is the lack of a really good non-conference schedule. In their 11 non-conference games, they have won 5 games against teams with a NET ranking of #222, #228, #250, #308 and #311. All five games were in LNC. I think that is driving their NET ranking down a bit.

In the other 6 games the Sooners have lost to the best team they have played, Utah at #6 NET on the road, but defeated #43 Ole Miss, #70 SMU (both at home), #137 UT-Arlington and #159 BYU (both on the road) and Florida #86 NET on a neutral floor. It seems that there is just not an impressive win to build a strong NET ranking on for the Sooners or because of dominating play by the Sooners.

Here is the Big 12 Women's Team standings per their NET ranking.

Iowa State - 8-2 - #12 NET ranking
Texas - 8-4 - #16 NET ranking
Baylor - 9-3 - #21 NET ranking
Kansas - 10-1 - #23 NET ranking
Oklahoma State - 10-2 - #46 NET ranking
Kansas State - 11-2 - #49 NET ranking
Oklahoma - 10-1 - #56 NET ranking
Texas Tech - 11-1 - #73 NET ranking
West Virginia - 9-2 - #75 NET ranking
TCU - 6-5 - #139 NET ranking

It is worth noting that Kansas lost its' last game to Nebraska on the 21st of December 85-79 to drop to 4th in the Big 12. The Jayhawks were #2 in the Big 12 by NET ranking before that loss.

The conference record of the Big 12 teams in non-conference play is 92-23 for a 80.8 winning %. But right now, the Sooners are closer to 9th with only a 19-point ranking difference with West Virginia and a 33-point ranking difference with Kansas. That would seem to indicate some potential problems for the Sooner Women going forward. It looks like that the Big 12 has four (4) groups of teams. the Top 4 in Iowa State, Texas, Baylor and Kansas, the next three with Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Oklahoma, then the two teams of Texas Tech and West Virginia with TCU on the very bottom by a decent margin.

In a scheduling quirk within the Big 12 play, the Sooners will play Iowa State twice in the first half (3rd and 9th games) of the Big 12 and then play Kansas State twice in the second half (13th and 17th) of the Big 12 games.

The Sooners play 4 of the 6 teams above them at home in the first half of the Big 12. The Sooners get Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and Oklahoma State at LNC while playing at Texas and Iowa State. The Sooners need to pull a few upsets at home against the upper half of the Big 12 teams in the first part of the Big 12 schedule. The Sooner can not afford a slip up against West Virginia, Texas Tech and TCU on the road either in the first 9 conference games. A 6-3 record for OU would be the minimal expectation for them I would think in the first 9 Big 12 games. That will require 3 wins against the top half of the league.

In the second half the schedule flips and the Sooners play only 2 of 6 games against teams above them at home in LNC. The four on the road are at Baylor, Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma State. The Sooners host Texas and Kansas State at home. Once again going 3-3 in these games is important. The other three games are against TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech at home which needs to be 3 wins for sure. A 6-3 record in the second 9 conference games would have the Sooners winning 22 games against 7 losses. That should place them in the NCAA Tourney with at least a semi finals finish in the Big 12 Tourney.

Can the Sooner Women do that? Sure they can if they play well. If they play like they did against Florida recently, I think the Sooners may even do better than the 22 wins. Here are the keys to me going forward for OU.

Currently there are four returning starters for the Sooners that are playing between 2.5 and 11 minutes less than they did last season. This is primarily due to playing 11 players most every game in this season compared to 9/10 last season. Robertson is playing 11 minutes less than she did last year. Williams is playing 4.5 minutes less. Llanusa is playing 6 minutes less with Vann playing 2.5 minutes less. I can understand Llanusa playing a bit less due to her coming back from her leg injury but for T-Rob, Madi and Vann to be playing 18 minutes less in total is difficult to understand. To me, that 3-some needs to play their minutes. Part of the drop in the minutes is the playing of Joens and Reyna Scott 29.9 minutes a game. I understand Joens playing 15.8 minutes a game as she is contributing and can play opposite of Robertson for three-point shots. So far, R Scott has shown good promise but maybe she has a few too many minutes. I would give some of her minutes to Llanusa and Robertson. L Scott and Tot are playing about the same number of minutes as last season and both are playing well IMO. Tucker has been earning 18.2 minutes a game this year which is actually down about 5 minutes. But Tucker played a great deal for Llanusa after Llanusa's injury last season. I might give Llanusa some of Tucker's minutes until Tucker can score more reliably.

It is inside that the the minutes are skewed the most part. Freshmen Johnson and Culliton are playing 27.1 minutes a game while L Scott plays 14.8 and Vann is playing 18.3. I would reduce both Johnson and Culliton minutes and give minutes to Vann and Williams with some going to L Scott.. I had high hopes for Johnson and Culliton this year and while there have been a couple flashes, they both will be challenged in the Big 12 against the quality of players they will face IMO. The Sooners will be undersized in most games in the Big 12. It is just how it will be. If the Sooners can run and shoot well, they can overcome the size inside IMO. I would try to use a 9 players rotation with a 10th getting a few minutes. and only play Johnson and Culliton when fouls inside build up against the Sooners. Right now, Johnson and Culliton are getting the minutes that Nydia Lampkin and Emma Svoboda (early) were getting last year.

I would divide minute like this; Madi, T-Rob and Tot for 30 minutes each. Vann and Llanusa with 27.5 a game, L Scott and Joens with 18 each and Tucker and R Scott the final 19 minutes. I would use Culliton, Johnson and maybe Svoboda off the bench for foul issues inside.

To me it will be interesting to see where the Sooners are after their five conference games against WV (road) Baylor (home) Iowa State (home), Texas Tech (road) and Kansas (home). The Sooners need to be now worse than 3-2 and hopefully 5-0 or 4-1. They really need to be 4-1 before they play TCU on the road and OSU in LNC to get to 6-1 as they finish the first half of conference play against Texas and Iowa State on the road which could be tough games to win.

Good luck to the Sooner Women in the Big 12 play. The season is there for them to take with improved play with their primary players playing more minutes.

Boomer Sooner!

[TN Sooner]

I’ve sort of been expecting that Madi and TRob were purposely being limited, both to keep them fresher during Big 12 and to allow development of the newer players. I think that when we need them to play 35 or more, they’ll be doing it.

I will say this - our freshmen class this year is the first group in a long time that I’m really excited about. Throw in a couple of transfers and I feel really good about the direction Coach Jennie has us going.