WCWS - Game #1 - Stanford vs Oklahoma: What I expect to see

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OUBeliever56A
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WCWS - Game #1 - Stanford vs Oklahoma: What I expect to see

Post by OUBeliever56A »

Let me start of by saying this. The goal on Thursday is to get beyond Friday. That is all. As long as you playing in a game on Saturday or Sunday, you are still inthe WCWS. The first thing you have to avoid is going 0-2. That is all you have to do IMO. How do you do that?

The 'upper' half of the bracket with OU, Stanford, Tennessee and Alabama is the much tougher half of the bracket I think most people would agree. That is what you have to get past Friday. I think on Thursday will see the strategy for Tennessee and Alabama play out. I think that both teams will throw their 'best' pitcher. That would be Rogers and probably Fouts in an all out effort to move to Saturday in the winner's bracket. I think that will work for Tennessee.

In the second game, Stanford will likley throw Nijaree Canady, the Freshman Player of the Year. I have not seen too much of her throwing, but I did watch the two games against Duke this past weekend. Canady throws very hard. The camera angle made is tough to see how much the ball moves up in the strike zone, but the proof of how much is the number of popups that Duke hit. There were many. Canady can throw to all four major zones for pitchers. She rarely threw a ball in the middle of the plate. I would never say that Duke is a great hitting team. But they did not have too much of a chance to score against her. Duke managed 5 hits, 1 walk and 13 Ks and 1 run against Canady in 11 innings.

I think the Sooners are possibly at their best against a power pitcher. They handle speed usually very well. I am concerned that the Sooners can get on top of the ball with their swings though. I think if OU can get on top of the ball against Faraimo, they have a shot at doing so against Canady. But Fariamo's ball is not as alive as Canady's pitches are. OU cannot swing at balls, especially up and in which is a place Canady likes to throw the ball or is asked to throw the ball. They will be popups. If Canady's pitches are away, the Sooners must go that way and hit the ball to the opposite field. If you try to pull power pitches up in the zone the bat is just dead unless you are extremely strong as a hitter. OU has some of those players but going with the pitch is always a better idea. Canady just buries the ball down and in against right handed hitters. It is difficult to hit the ball with authority when Canady is down and in. You have to get the bat head in front to hit the pitch well. Stanford is good on defense so if OU bunts with Coleman and Boone, they will have to be good bunts. I think Canady could make an error if challenged by small ball. With the power that Canady throws, and the strength of the OU hitters, there will be a long ball or two. Hopefully it is when the Sooners have a runner or two on base. I doubt OU singles Canady to death. It will likely be big hits for OU. The top six hitter for OU, Coleman through Sanders I think, will have to do some damage on Thursday for the Sooner to be successful.

In the circle for OU, I am going to go a different direction that what I have seen predicted by most. To get beyond Friday, the Sooners have to probably defeat Stanford or Alabama. Coach Gasso has talked a couple of times this year about this group of pitchers being a staff and maybe a staff with roles. I think we will see May start on Thursday with perhaps Bahl finishing the game if needed. Stanford has only slight power in their lineup, 4 players have hit 19 of the 24 they have hit. One of those 4 players, Koch, has not played since March. If May has a weakness, I said IF, it is that she can give up a long ball on a pitch not up in the zone enough. I will say that May has done a great job of avoiding that in 2023 for the most part. But I think May can handle Stanford well. She is also a good fielder which is also important. I like May quite a lot to start this Thursday's game. I even like the idea of Storako and Deal getting to pitch against Stanford if the Sooner offense is on their game and scores some runs. I think Storako is okay, I think she was trying to throw the ball a bit to hard against Clemson and even in the Regionals. That flattens out her pitches. If she can calm herself a bit, the ball will move and she will find her groove.

Stanford's offense has a lower OB% than OU hits for BA. (.353 OB% against a .372 BA) Oklahoma's OB% is higher than Stanford's Slug %. (.462 OB% to .402 Slug%). The numenrs on offnse for Stanford requires them to hold Oklahoma under 2 or 3 runs have a chance to win. I trust Nicole May with that challenge.

If the worst thing happens, and OU does not win over Stanford, OU will have a rested Bahl to pitch against Bama, probably on Friday. I like that matchup also especially with Bahl's defense against the small ball Bama offense. After a Friday game and a win over Bama, OU would not play until Sunday, so rest for Bahl is not an issue. that is okay.

If the best thing happens and OU defeats Stanford, Bahl is still rested to pitch in the Saturday game at 3 PM against Tennessee most likely. That could be must watch TV or softball in person!

Thursday's game will likley be won with the bats as OU gets a couple of big hits against Canady. By her stats, Canady allows a hit every 2 innings and a walk/HB about every 3.5 innings. I think Canady's downfall might be that she throws more balls than normal to stay away from the Sooners and trying to get them to swing at balls. If OU is disciplined and lays off the non-strikes effectively, when she has to challenge OU, they will be looking for it and hit it hard. IF that occurs with a walked or hit batter on base, it will be a crooked number. It will not be like OU vs UCLA in February, but it will the same type of thing. At least I hope it will. OU's hitting against Penta of Auburn is another one I think.

I think OU will win on Thursday. It might be close also. But Stanford cannot outscore OU even in a low scoring contest.

Boomer Sooner!
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Post by SoonerGirl1201 »

One thing to think about, as a Freshman this will be Nijaree Canady's first trip to OKC and Stanfords first since 2004. My guess, there will be some nerves and I'm hoping OU takes quick advantage of that!
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Post by RahOKU »

Excellent analysis, as always, SS56.

D1 Softball's Tara Henry is convinced Stanford will throw Vawter tomorrow. I agree with you that Canady will be chosen. They led with Canady in the SR, and I think they'll do it again tomorrow -- unless they're worried about a case of nerves or whatever.

May as the Game 1 starter for OU is interesting. It's not a power lineup OU will face, which I think is where May can be effective. I like the idea of Bahl coming on in relief, if the game allows it, or even 'Rocko.

The Sooners have displayed above-average strike zone discipline all season. Folks on other boards have said there's not much video of Canady for JT & Co. to study, but I think there's enough just from this postseason. Might we see Stanford use all three of their arms tomorrow? It's being said that Krause, who the Sooners hammered in February, has pitched well over the second-half of the season. Maybe some rope-a-dope in the circle from the Cards.

:ou:
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

RahOKU wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 4:15 pm Excellent analysis, as always, SS56.

D1 Softball's Tara Henry is convinced Stanford will throw Vawter tomorrow. I agree with you that Canady will be chosen. They led with Canady in the SR, and I think they'll do it again tomorrow -- unless they're worried about a case of nerves or whatever.

May as the Game 1 starter for OU is interesting. It's not a power lineup OU will face, which I think is where May can be effective. I like the idea of Bahl coming on in relief, if the game allows it, or even 'Rocko.

The Sooners have displayed above-average strike zone discipline all season. Folks on other boards have said there's not much video of Canady for JT & Co. to study, but I think there's enough just from this postseason. Might we see Stanford use all three of their arms tomorrow? It's being said that Krause, who the Sooners hammered in February, has pitched well over the second-half of the season. Maybe some rope-a-dope in the circle from the Cards.

:ou:
I Stanford chooses to throw Vawter against OU, they are more worried about winning on Friday than they are trying to win on Thursday. OR, the tape of Faraimo pitching against OU or Penta throwing against OU, scared them to death and they want to protect Canady (even Cagle should scare them).

As for Vawter. She can pitch, but the 2nd time through the lineup the Sooners will say hello if not Sooners. I would say that Orme, Morgan the first time and Kilfoyl late in the season are better than Vawter.

As for Krause, after her first game of her season against OU, her ERA was 10+. She did work it down to 1.86 by March 29th which is impressive. But since then her ERA is up to 2.21 which is credible. She seems to pitch well and then not as well but nothing terrible.

I think if OU scores 4, no matter who pitches, that the win is in the Win column for OU.
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Post by TropicalSooner »

RahOKU wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 4:15 pm Excellent analysis, as always, SS56.

D1 Softball's Tara Henry is convinced Stanford will throw Vawter tomorrow. I agree with you that Canady will be chosen. They led with Canady in the SR, and I think they'll do it again tomorrow -- unless they're worried about a case of nerves or whatever.

May as the Game 1 starter for OU is interesting. It's not a power lineup OU will face, which I think is where May can be effective. I like the idea of Bahl coming on in relief, if the game allows it, or even 'Rocko.

The Sooners have displayed above-average strike zone discipline all season. Folks on other boards have said there's not much video of Canady for JT & Co. to study, but I think there's enough just from this postseason. Might we see Stanford use all three of their arms tomorrow? It's being said that Krause, who the Sooners hammered in February, has pitched well over the second-half of the season. Maybe some rope-a-dope in the circle from the Cards.

:ou:
Hey Rah!
Glad to see you post over on this board. Enjoy your posts over on robo but I don't spar with those folks much anymore. Much friendlier vibe over here.
I would agree that if they start Vawter, they must be worried about freshman nerves on the big stage. I look for Canady myself.
aka Crimson47
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