OU path to BIG 12 CCG

[Three5s!]

Here is a good article, but it does not go very deep. https://fansided.com/posts/big-12-champ ... hf0tf0sekj

If anyone has a better source, please provide it so we know what to wish for.


Big 12 Championship Game scenarios after Oklahoma State upset, Oklahoma win
By Cody Williams | 12:31 AM EST

In the final year of the Big 12 that we've come to know and love, it's only natural that the conference that has been an agent of chaos in college football for some time now. And in Week 11, we got plenty of it.

On the heels of their huge win over the Oklahoma Sooners in Bedlam last week, Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State Cowboys followed that up by laying a total egg on the road against UCF in a blowout upset loss. Only adding to that chaos, though, Kansas lost to Texas Tech after QB Jason Bean went out due to injury, further throwing the Big 12 standings into a frenzy.


The Texas Longhorns remain atop the conference after staving off a TCU comeback in Week 11, and the Longhorns are the conference's only real shot at sending a team to the College Football Playoff. As for which two teams end up playing in the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington, though, that has yet to be determined.

So what scenarios are still in play? Let's take a look at the standings and the teams vying for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Big 12 standings after Week 11
Texas Longhorns 9-1 (6-1)
Oklahoma State Cowboys 7-3 (5-2)
Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 (5-2)
Iowa State Cyclones 6-4 (5-2)
Kansas State Wildcats 7-3 (5-2)
West Virginia Mountaineers 6-4 (4-3)
Texas Tech Red Raiders 5-5 (4-3)
Kansas Jayhawks 7-3 (4-3)
TCU Horned Frogs 4-6 (2-5)
BYU Cougars 5-5 (2-5)
Houston Cougars 4-6 (2-5)
Baylor Bears 3-7 (2-5)
UCF Knights 5-5 (2-5)
Cincinnati Bearcats 3-7 (1-6)

So with the standings getting even more bunched up and more confusing now, let's take a look at the Big 12 Championship Game scenarios at play over the final two weeks of the regular season. With five teams with two losses or fewer in conference play, we'll focus on what those teams need.


Big 12 Championship Game scenarios after Week 11
As they have been for a couple of weeks now, Texas remains in the driver's seat ast the only one-loss team in the conference right now. Because of the head-to-head loss to Oklahoma, though, the Longhorns have no margin for error assuming everyone else wins out and must win their final two games at Iowa State and in Austin against Texas Tech to secure their spot in the Big 12 title game.

Despite the loss to UCF in demoralizing fashion in Week 11, Oklahoma State is still the No. 2 team in the conference right now and would meet Texas in Arlington if the season ended today. The tiebreaker for multiple teams is combined head-to-head record against the tied teams and the Cowboys' wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State, despite a loss to Iowa State, gives the Pokes the edge. They must win out, however, to secure their spot. With a loss against Houston or BYU, they would likely miss out on the conference championship game. But for now, they control their own destiny.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, has a leg up on Iowa State and Kansas State because of a head-to-head win over the Cyclones. The Sooners finish the regular season on the road against BYU and at home against TCU. Brent Venables' team should be favored in each contest by wuite a bit, but they need to win out to have a chance. More importantly, they have multiple paths to Arlington.

If Texas were to lose one of its remaining games, the Sooners' head-to-head win over the Longhorns would vault them ahead. Even if the Longhorns win out, though, Oklahoma could still get in if Oklahoma State were to drop one of its final two games while OU wins out. That's not to say that either scenario is likely, but there are multiple avenues for the Sooners to make the Big 12 Championship Game.


Next up is an Iowa State team that is still lurking and has a chance to make some noise. The Cyclones finish the season hosting Texas and then on the road at Kansas State. They must win both remaining games to have a chance of getting to the Big 12 Championship Game. However, with losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State already, they would also need the Cowboys or Sooners to drop one of their remaining games to get in.

That leaves us with Kansas State, who finishes the regular season at Kansas and, as mentioned, hosting Iowa State. The Wildcats would also need to win out, first and foremost, but would need both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to lose one of their remaining two games in order to get in due to their loss to the Cowboys earlier in the year. Chris Klieman's team has the most unlikely path, but the path is still there.

[OU Chinaman]

..."SO, YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!"

[Bixby_Sooner]

..."SO, YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!"

to quote one of my favorite Yankees - "It's not over - 'til it's over" - Yogi Berra

P.S. Stay tuned, it's not over.

[pippen]

..."SO, YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!"

LOL

[TropicalSooner]

..."SO, YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!"

[SoonerGirl1201]

That article made a mistake. Iowa State beat OSU and has the h2h over them.

Either way, we need texas to lose against Iowa State this weekend and I think it is a real possibility. The texas running back is out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury (sorry for him) and Iowa State has been playing really well. Their only losses are to us and Kansas.

[StatesEye]

Blistering the cowpukes in the CCG would be a very satisfying experience after all of their talk of "never playing again" and "final bragging rights". Texas dropping a game to make that happen would be icing on the cake.

[OU Guy]

[Soonr80]

Blistering the cowpukes in the CCG would be a very satisfying experience after all of their talk of "never playing again" and "final bragging rights". Texas dropping a game to make that happen would be icing on the cake.

Definitely a dream way to leave the “diminished 12”

[OU Guy]

[SoonerGirl1201]

Here is a great tool:

If we along with Texas, OSU, KSU win out and Cincy beats KU we are in. There are many other possibilities, Iowa State beating Texas and us winning out, etc

https://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

[Triple Option]

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/ ... eeks-left/

Don't know if he has this all figured right, but he's thought about it a lot more than I'm willing to.

Understanding the Big 12 Football Tiebreakers with Two Weeks Left
Bryan Clinton November 13, 2023

With just two weeks of action remaining, the Big 12 race is as tight (and confusing) as it’s ever been after the events of Week 11.

The Texas Longhorns are the one team that controls their own destiny, as winning out would get them to 8-1 in conference play and secure their spot in the Big 12 Championship game. After that though, the word “log jam” doesn’t quite do it justice.

The curfuffle that is the tie for second place in the Big 12 standings is nearly impossible to understand, given the nearly impossible puzzle that is the Big 12 tiebreakers for 2023. If you’d like to read them yourself, check out this link, but I’ll give you the long and short of what you need to know.

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP SCENARIOS
First, head-to-head matchups matter in the event of a two-way tie, but if a three-way tie involves teams that haven’t played each other (i.e. Oklahoma and Kansas State), the record highest-ranked common opponent(s) among all three teams will be what breaks the tie rather than head-to-head.

This isn’t an exact science, as the number of variables that are possible over the last two weeks are almost impossible to break down.

For example, if Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State, were all to win out but Texas loses to Iowa State this week, the Big 12 Championship would be K-State vs. Oklahoma. However, if the Longhorns beat Iowa State, but turn around and lose to Texas Tech, the matchup would be Texas vs. Kansas State.

So, instead of breaking down every single potential matchup, I came up with the most likely scenarios for each contender over the next two weeks. Here’s how things look.

TEXAS LONGHORNS 9-1 (6-1)
Remaining Schedule:
at Iowa State (Nov. 18)
vs. Texas Tech (Nov. 24)

Path(s): Win Out, OR Beat Iowa State OR Beat Texas Tech + OU Loss

Conclusion:
Texas can secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship with a win over Iowa State on Saturday, and would obviously be there if they were to win out and go 11-1 on the year. However, if the Cyclones can pull off an upset over Texas and drop them to 6-2 in conference play, the Longhorns would then require an Oklahoma loss to get to Arlington on top of beating Texas Tech in Week 13.

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS 7-3 (5-2)
Remaining Schedule:
at Kansas (Nov. 18)
vs. Iowa State (Nov. 25)

Path(s): Win Out PLUS
Texas Loss OR OU & OSU Win Out

Conclusion:
Kansas State is probably in the best position of the teams currently tied for second place in the Big 12 standings. The Wildcats would go to the Big 12 Championship if chalk holds, because they would have the best record against their common opponents with OU and OSU, which are Iowa State, Kansas, and UCF. Starting with the highest-ranked team in that group, presumably Kansas, the Wildcats and Pokes are 1-0, while OU is 0-1. Then, the next-highest-ranked common opponent, Iowa State, gives K-State (1-0) the edge it needs to advance past Oklahoma State (0-1).

OKLAHOMA SOONERS 8-2 (5-2)
Remaining Schedule:
at BYU (Nov. 18)
vs. TCU (Nov. 24)

Path(s): Win Out PLUS
Texas Loss OR OSU Loss OR
OSU & K-State Win Out & KU Goes 0-2

Conclusion:
Oklahoma is well-positioned to make a Big 12 Championship game appearance despite suffering back-to-back losses in Week 9 and Week 10. The Sooners can get to Arlington with either a Texas loss or an Oklahoma State loss, but also have a sneaky back-door option of getting in as well. If K-State and Oklahoma State win out, but Kansas goes 0-2 to finish the season, the Sooners would get the nod to face Texas. How? Iowa State would become the highest-ranked common opponent for the three teams, and Oklahoma (1-0) and Kansas State (1-0) would advance in that case. Then, the highest-ranked common opponent between the Sooners and Wildcats is Texas, which OU defeated and K-State did not.

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 7-3 (5-2)
Remaining Schedule:
at Houston (Nov. 18)
vs. BYU (Nov. 25)

Path(s): Win Out PLUS
K-State Loss OR OU Loss

Conclusion:
Heading into Week 11, Oklahoma State controlled its own destiny and could make a Big 12 Championship appearance if it could win out. However, a 45-3 loss at the hands of UCF changed things in a major way as simply winning out won’t be enough to get them in. In order for Oklahoma State to make the Big 12 title game, they’ll need Kansas State or Oklahoma to drop a game. As ridiculous as that sounds, the Pokes will advance if they are in a two-way tie with either team. However, a three-way tie doesn’t play out in their favor, thanks to head-to-head not being a factor in that scenario. Winning out is still necessary, but they’ll need help to advance at this point.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES 6-4 (5-2)
Remaining Schedule:
vs. Texas (Nov. 18)
at Kansas State (Nov. 25)

Path(s): Win Out PLUS
OSU Loss OR OU Loss

Conclusion:
Iowa State’s game against Texas this weekend is one of the most important games of the season in the Big 12, both for the Cyclones and the rest of the contenders. If they can pull off the upset at home, they’ll need a loss from Oklahoma or Oklahoma State to get in. If Oklahoma drops a game, the Cyclones would get in based off their head-to-head win over Texas and the Sooners falling below them in the standings. If Oklahoma State drops a game, the Cyclones would advance over them and Texas by way of their 2-0 record in a round-robin tiebreaker for three teams.

[Zgeo]

So, when it is a tight race you have to win out and hope the right team falters……sounds legit…..