The Surprising Kansas Jayhawks==Can They Steal a Game From the Sooners??

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The Surprising Kansas Jayhawks==Can They Steal a Game From the Sooners??

Post by TropicalSooner »

Last Fall when I wrote my "New Big 12 Review"--and even right up to just before the season started--Kansas was not on my radar for any meaningful achievement. They might steal a game from OSU like in the Championship post season last year. But I didn't see anything really turning around for them this year. In fact I had them fighting between Iowa State and Houston for 8th place in the standings. I sure didn't see them tied with OSU for 3rd Place in the conference and on a 7 game win streak at this point in the season.
But here we are folks. The Jayhawks are riding a consistent pitching staff and a complementary hitting lineup into a surprising tie for 3rd place right now. Kansas is not a team most teams think of as an upset threat, but I think we need to be careful with that. I still think we will sweep the series, but we better go into Lawrence with both eyes wide open, and ready for some tough games.

So what does Kansas really look like then?
Ranked #18 by Softball America and #21 by D1 Softball, and sitting at #27 in the week 4 RPI, the Kansas Jayhawks have quietly gone about their business of putting together a very successful season to this point. They have wins over Texas A&M (1-0 !), Illinois, 2 wins over Wichita State, a 2-3 loss to Missouri, and swept both the Baylor series and the Houston series. Perhaps not the most impressive of wins, but wins nonetheless and over P5 conference teams. What they seem to have improved on this year is their pitching with new pitching coach, Laura Heberling, who came on board last December from Maryland. Last year, righty Katie Brooks was unimpressive at 5-6 with a 4.60 era. This year she is 10-2 with a 1.89 era. Likewise, lefty Kasey Hamilton was 9-10 with 3.96 era. This year she is 9-5 and 2.28 era. So far this season, Hamilton has 71 K's to 43 FB's over 101.1 IP. She also has recorded 139 FO's to 85 GO's and has thrown 62.5% strikes. Brooks has 53 K's to 50 FB's over 73 IP. She also has recorded 49 FO's to 103 GO's and has thrown 56% strikes. Olivia Bruno has the 3rd most IP's at 14.1 with 12 K's and 12 BB's and sports a 1.95 era. None of the remaining staff has more than 7 IP's and don't look to be a factor.

The Jayhawks offense, like Baylor's, is not a power offense. The entire team has only 16 HRs and 32 2Bs and have scored 148 runs in 31 games for an ave of 4.75 per game. However, their runs per game is skewed a bit with lofty wins over Cent Ark, UTSA x2, N Dak St, and Creighton. Against more solid teams recently such as UCF, Baylor, Missouri, and even Houston, they are averaging 2 or maybe 3 runs per game. Like the Bears, their strategy has to be to try to stay even with their pitching and hold your score low and try to beat you with their short game in a low scoring affair.
The Jayhawks do have 3 hitters just barely over .300 in the top half of their lineup, but as a team, they are only hitting .278. They have struck out 132 time to only 104 walks and 17 hp.
Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, their leadoff and best hitter, LF'er Presley Limbaugh, whose BA is .449 with .571 slg% and .542 ob%, has been out of the lineup since Feb 29th. I cannot find anything reporting any kind of injury or other reason for her absence and this will directly impact how well their offense can perform against our pitchers. If she suddenly shows up on Friday, then they have a chance to try to put up enough runs to make a game of it. If not, then it will be solely on their pitchers to try to throw and win a 1-0 kind of game against us.

The Jayhawk defense, while better to some degree from last year, still needs work. They already have 30 errors for a .967 fld%, up a bit from last year's .959%. Perhaps it's telling that in Limbaugh's absence, after trying several others in the OF, they settled on Savanna DesRoches for her replacement in LF sporting a 1.000 fld %. Her BA is .167.

If the Jayhawks can keep the score low (see Mizzou and aTm above) then they may present a problem. But they have not faced a pitching staff like ours, and they certainly have not thrown to a hitting lineup like ours. If the strike zone is as tight as the last couple of weeks have been, and if we can remain patient at the plate, then we should readily be able to get on base with some walks and wait for a forced strike down the middle that we can double in some runs with or even clear the fence with.
We should sweep the series, but like my expectations with Baylor, there may a nail biter in there somewhere.
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

If anything, I am cautious about Kansas getting an unexpected big hit with one or two on. Moore or Bruno could plate 2 or 3 runs quickly.

I picked up on Hamilton two years ago up in Lawrence and then again last year as the year went on after we played them here. Hamilton has good stuff and throws hard enough. I was surprised to see she has pitched 100 already today.

As for Brooks, no idea. I do not remember any one else for Kansaa as a pitcher that was close to a sub 2.00 ERA.

The Sooners need to solve both of them early.

I still think OU will win 3, but they may not be won by big margins early in the 3 games.

Boomer Sooner!
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Post by 1KCSoonerFan »

Thorough write-up, Tropical!

When I read the title of your topic, can Kansas steal a game, my very first thought was, "Not anymore they can't." Oddly enough, I think Kansas' recent successes have lessened their chances of an ambush. The Sooners are now aware of what the Jayhawks can do.

I have been following the Jayhawk SB team a little bit this year, and I am glad they are finding more success - that only bodes well for the sport. It certainly helps OU's RPI numbers.

From the write-up, it doesn't seem like the Rock Chalkers have enough firepower on either end of an inning to go the distance. Hamilton may keep the game(s) she pitches within reach for awhile, however, Kansas seems caught on the horns of a dilemma if they pitch her too much or for too long: The Crimson and Cream Scoring Machine will figure her out, and the batting practice begins. That's what I hope, at least.

It was 29 degrees here in KC this morning. It is forecast to warm up this afternoon into the high 40's. A quick peek at the forecast for the weekend shows decent weather at all game times with low 60's and low 70's and clear skies.

I remember that 30-40 ft. tall (estimating), grey building just beyond the right outfield fence at the KU softball field - and how Jennings almost hit a ball onto the roof of it year before last, bouncing off about 6 feet from the top. What a towering shot.
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

Surprising Kansas up next for OU Softball- 3-game series Th,F,S

The #24/RV Kansas Jayhawks (22-8-1) will host the #1 Oklahoma Sooners (31-1) for their 3-game Big 12 series in a Thursday, Friday, Saturday series in Lawrence, KS. The surprising Kansas Jayhawks moved into the ranked teams this week after they swept Houston on the road last week. The Jayhawks opened the season with a 4-5-1 record in their first two weeks. Since then, Kansas has won 18 of their next 21 games to go 18-3. Kansas is 8-1 in the last two weeks with two wins over Wichita State, 3 over Baylor and 3 over Houston. Their lone loss was to Mizzou in 1-run loss, 2-3.

What has lead the Jayhawks surge? Their pitching. More specifically, their duo of pitchers, Kasey Hamilton and Katie Brooks. Prior to this season the duo had career ERA's of 4.55 for Brooks and 4.70 for Hamilton. This season, the two have ERA's of 1.89 (Brooks) and 2.28 (Hamilton). I can say that in 2022 in Lawrence, I saw a pitcher in Hamilton that could be good. Her control and leaving pitches over the middle of the plate was her issue. Last year, Hamilton's ERA was 3.96 as she showed improvement, especially with her control but she still gave up a high amount of EBH.

In 2024, Hamilton ( a LHP) has reduced those EBH by about half in about 70% of the amount of innings. Hamilton has already pitched 101.1 innings in 2024 with a strong 2.28 ERA. She is 9-5 on the season. Her hits, walks and HB allowed are all down. Hamilton has found something that has helped.

In 2024 Brooks (a RHP) has found something as well. The main improvement by her is the reduction of EBH. In 2024 the EBH allowed for Brooks has dropped about 50% and she has allowed 0 (zero) HRs in 2024 in 74.0 innings. That may lead the world in innings without a HR. Her ERA is 1.89. I can see a little improvement in hits allowed also.

But these two pitchers have pitched 175.1 innings out of 207.2 innings for the Jayhawks in 2024 for 84% of the innings. Oklahoma will see these two pitchers most of the time this weekend. Since the beginning of March, I think the other 5 pitchers have pitched 5 innings. The Kansas staff (duo) have only allowed 25 doubles, 1 triple and 10 HRs. (10 HRs in 207 innings is very low.) This may be the KEY stat to watch this weekend. If Kansas allows 1 HR every 20 innings this weekend, there will probably be huge party in Lawrence, right? But the duo still allows a .223 BAA, so Oklahoma should hit well this weekend, if they also hit with power, Kansas will likely struggle in the circle. BTW, Oklahoma averages hitting a HR every 2.5 innings. That is about 10-times as often as Kansas is allowing so far this year.

On offense, the Jayhawks are not real good but not awful. Their hitting line is .278 BA, their OB% is .369 and their Slug% is .397. If Olivia Bruno was hitting as she did last two seasons the offense would be better. OU wants to continue her slump this weekend. The Kansas three best hitters are Bagshaw (1B), Cripe (SS) and Moore (C). Those three plus Bruno's potential is about their only power. The Jayhawks have only hit 32 doubles, 9 triples and 16 HRs on the season. Kansas scores 4.77 runs a game, while OU averages 9.125 runs a game.

As for the Sooners, watching the pitching staff order will be interesting. With the games scheduled at 5 PM, 5 PM and then at Noon on the final day, I am guessing it goes Maxwell on Thursday, maybe Deal or Keeney on Friday and then May on Saturday. But my guesses about starters have not been to good this season. The Friday and Saturday starters could be the order used as well. I do think that Keeney could be effective this weekend in relief as well as perhaps Monticelli.

I think that Torres has solidified a starting position at this point. She is errorless and hitting over .400. She could start at 2B or RF all three games this weekend. Coor might also get a start this weekend in the outfield against Hamilton also this weekend perhaps if the Sooners lineup makers guess right. I wonder if Hansen will see the field this weekend, maybe at DH first then behind the plate. I hope that happens. As I have said, 10+ hits and twice as many walks as Ks and hit the ball a long ways is the goal for OU each game. They are doing a good job of doing so. Oklahoma can run on the Kansas catcher this weekend as Moore throws out 3 out of 10 stealers.

Good luck to the Sooners this weekend. The weather looks pretty good.

Boomer Sooner
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

Here is the Sooner staff writers article about the OU @ Kansas series.

https://soonersports.com/news/2024/3/27 ... -25-series

First pitch on Thursday is scheduled for 5 p.m. CT followed by a 5 p.m. start on Friday and a noon Saturday finale. The series will be broadcast on ESPN+ and 1560 AM/103.3 FM The Franchise 2.

Good luck to the Sooners in Lawrence.

Boomer Sooner!
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Post by TropicalSooner »

In the past, part of the fun of game anticipation was trying to predict what the lineups would be like.
Now that we use all this analytics and computer driven models, that is really hard to do.
But I'm going to try anyway- Ha!
And I am going to assume lefty Kasey Hamilton gets the start for the birds---

CF Coleman
SS Jennings
3B Brito
DP Parker
1B Sanders
RF Pickering
2B Torres
LF Boone
C Ludlam

SP Maxwell
RP Keeney


Anyone else want to take a guess?
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Post by 1KCSoonerFan »

That line up looks solid to me, Trop! The only question I have for you is why Boone is not in the 9 hole instead of Ludlam? Maybe Coach Tropical wants to keep the best hitters as bunched or strung together as possible - and Ludlam is the weak link?

I guess the question about who will start at 2B is over for the time being - it's Torres. She deserves it and is playing very solid ball right now!
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Post by TropicalSooner »

1KCSoonerFan wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:44 am That line up looks solid to me, Trop! The only question I have for you is why Boone is not in the 9 hole instead of Ludlam? Maybe Coach Tropical wants to keep the best hitters as bunched or strung together as possible - and Ludlam is the weak link?

I guess the question about who will start at 2B is over for the time being - it's Torres. She deserves it and is playing very solid ball right now!
Here's what I was thinking---for right or wrong.
Against the lefty Hamilton, I was trying to get 5 RH hitters in the lineup, so that meant putting Torres at 2B instead of Hodge. I wanted Torres to be in the lineup somewhere against Hamilton. Ludlam is not a weak link (except if her hand is hurting?) but I didn't want to bunch Boone and Coleman together (both lefty's) against Hamiton. I guess I just wanted a hot Torres batting higher in the lineup than the 9 hole, so that left Ludlam to roll the order over back to Coleman. And Ludlam has a really good eye. She gets as many walks as anybody, and it would be great to have her on base when Coleman comes to bat.
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

In my post, I mentioned that maybe Coor would get a start against Hamilton. I will crawl out on a small limb and guess this.

Coleman CF
Jennings 2B
Brito 3B
Parker 1B
Hansen DP
Torres 2B
Ludlam C
Boone RF
Coor LF
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Post by TropicalSooner »

Nice!
Good Lineup!
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Post by AustinTXSooner »

Hitting Comparison
#PlayerYrBAOBPSLGABRHRBBRBIKGOFOOPS
23Jennings, TiareSr.438.514.9668925121741616311.480
33Brito, AlyssaSr.432.514.94388371216341016231.457
1Sanders, CydneyJr.339.540.8815918102330118201.421
5Parker, EllaFr.436.526.756783561633131991.282
40Torres, AlynahSr.417.507.767601561120412191.274
24Coleman, JaydaSr.432.545.704813752323314341.249
12Bland, MayaFr.444.545.667917241221.212
9Hansen, KinzieSr.361.429.75461167816611221.183
0Boone, RylieSr.463.506.62580211618224151.131
7Pickering, KasidiFr.397.483.630732741422816211.113
30Ludlam, RileySr.348.516.56546163171979131.081
43Lilio, QuinceeSo.158.385.421195154349.806
82Hodge, AverySo.286.350.40035154531410.750
27Coor, HannahJr.192.233.385268115599.618
-Totals-.394.493.73380429268163274821742371.226
Kansas - I removed those with less than 10 ABs
#PlayerYrBAOBPSLGABRHRBBRBIKGOFOOPS
4Limbaugh, PresleySo.449.542.5714914101468121.113
3Moore, LyricSr.307.396.54588185816142125.941
28Carsley, AbbyFr.364.462.45511222115.917
41Cripe, HaileySo.309.393.500941631123141831.893
6Bagshaw, CampbellSo.317.380.50082162824182517.880
0Price, AngelaSr.286.400.34370128882518.743
99Purvis, AddisonSr.231.434.2823941159811.716
22Anderson, AshlynSr.269.352.3337811103161919.685
39Linduff, AynsleeSo.271.307.37596202510122828.682
1Roszak, SaraJr.234.286.31364615982021.599
23Bruno, OliviaJr.197.338.2586671149141127.596
2DesRochers, SavannaSr.167.211.25036112651513.461
17Buzard, SophiaSr.158.238.15819623338.396
-Totals-.278.369.39782114816104142132214241.766
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Post by AustinTXSooner »

Pitching Comparison
#PlayerYrAppGSERAHRGOFOWLSVIPK/BBK/7IPWHIPOBPSLGOPS
85Geurin, SJFr60.009727.72.36.390.65.179.120.299
17Monticelli, PaytnSo1210.46181615.34.09.130.98.254.196.450
8Keeney, KarlieSr1631.193532531135.32.93.961.05.262.288.550
11Deal, KierstonSo981.3132439732.03.27.001.13.273.269.542
28Maxwell, KellySr1691.66455429154.73.37.680.99.255.260.515
19May, NicoleSr12111.83539391046.03.58.521.24.297.327.624
-Totals-1.39161881682172.03.37.941.19.267.274.541
Kansas
#PlayerYrAppGSERAHRGOFOWLSVIPK/BBK/7IPWHIPOBPSLGOPS
2DesRochers, SavannaSr111.755614.0-1.751.50.353.389.742
16Brooks, KatieJr15131.891054910274.01.25.011.62.358.279.638
23Bruno, OliviaJr61.95216121114.31.05.861.60.371.346.717
99Purvis, AddisonSr422.0011617.05.05.001.86.361.333.694
24Hamilton, KaseySr19152.28785139952101.01.94.921.18.290.294.584
11Ludwig, LizzySo35.83111316.0-3.501.67.323.452.774
21Soles, AnnaFr17.00111.01.07.003.00.500.400.900
-Totals-2.22102342163207.01.54.941.42.327.303.630
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

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Post by OUBeliever56A »

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Post by TropicalSooner »

:handsup:

Awesome!
Thanks!!
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