My Thoughts for the Norman Regional for 2024

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TropicalSooner
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My Thoughts for the Norman Regional for 2024

Post by TropicalSooner »

Here's my thoughts about the Norman Regional for 2024--the team we know we are going to face, and the other two possibilities.

Cleveland State University, Cleveland OH (22-24) (15-10) Horizon League

The way I see it, if you are going to be one of the last 4 in (and only because you won your conference tournament) and get sent somewhere to face one of the top 4 teams in the country, then the Vikings drew the long straw and got the best end of the deal of any of the last teams selected. They get to come to Norman, Oklahoma. That is a big win for them in two ways. Not only do they have the opportunity to come compete against the 3 time and reigning National Champion Sooners (I mean, you couldn't even dream to schedule a regular season game with the Sooners, right?) but they also get to come and play in the newest, largest, and best stadium in the entire country--Love's Field. Just playing at Love's Field will be like being in a smaller version of Devon (Hall of Fame) Stadium with all the loud crowds surrounding them. Cleveland State has not had attendance even remotely close to what they will experience at Love's Field. Their average home attendance was only109. For home conference games 115. Their largest home crowd was 457 against Hawaii. Largest away was 634. 8 Games were 0. The crowd they will experience at Love's field will no doubt be a shock. The Vikings may not have the same level of talent on their team, but they did win the Horizon Conference Tournament and will certainly bring effort and spirit to do all they can to compete with the Sooners. After the game with the Sooners, they will face one of the other two teams in the bracket: Oregon or Boston Univ. both of which have been recently ranked in the 20-25 range depending on which poll you happen to be looking at. The Vikings struggle won't end with the Sooners however, and after their second game they will call it a day and enjoy the rest of their outing to Oklahoma. The odds against them winning even one game are really stacked against them, but this is going to be a trip they will never forget. I hope all the Sooner Fans welcome them with open arms.

Now, what do they bring to Norman?

Offense:
The Vikes do have four starters hitting over .300 led by LF Emma Gilkerson at .353. But don't read too much into this. Their last RPI ranking was 240 and their SOS was 285. As a team, their BA is .276, OB% .331, and their SLG% .395. They only have 26 SB's and were caught stealing 10 times. Their offense produced 175 runs for 46 games on the season to ave 3.80 runs per game. That is not a lot of output for the strength of schedule they had.
Players to watch:
Gilkerson. Not only leads the team in BA and HR's (6), has only struck out 11 times to go with 23 walks.
CF Brooke Albaugh. Generally bats lead-off and has the 2nd highest BA at .349 but also leads the team in doubles with 16.
Senior SS Jenna Deang batting 2nd, leads the team in stolen bases with 11.
Junior Melissa Holzopfel also hits (BA .326) when not pitching (see below) and can be found at DP when not in the circle.

Defense:
In spite of the level of competition they've faced, the Vikings have been quite error prone. They have 65 errors over 46 games and their FLD % is .950.

Pitching:
Jr RHP Melissa Holzopfel is by far the anchor of their pitching staff. At 19-9 w 1.77 era, she carries respectable numbers of 195 K's, 74 BB's, 5 HBP, over 193 IP. She gave up only 5 HRs and has a .209 BAA. While her numbers on the surface look really good, and she very well may be, again consider the competition she was pitching to. The Sooner lineup may be another level she hasn't seen. The only other pitcher on staff with single digit numbers is Sr RHP Torrie Jenkins, 3-9 w 6.00 era. She has 38 K's, 24 BB's, 8 HBP over 77 IP. The remaining pitchers all have 40 IP or less, no wins, and double digit era's, against weak competition. I cannot imagine anyone other than Holzopfel pitching against the sooners, unless they think they can survive a second game and want to save Holzopfel for the game against Boston Univ or Oregon in the hopes of extending their stay by one more game. But I truly doubt that will happen. If Holzopfel only has to pitch 4 innings against the Sooners, she can probably pitch both days. Unless she has to throw 100 pitches to get 12 outs.



Boston University, Boston MA, (52-4-1) (18-0) (Win streak at 11 games--undefeated at 26 which includes a tie) Patriot League

Boston Univ has recently been ranked in the 20-25 range (along with Oregon) in most of the recent polls. They currently boast the best record in college softball for 2024 at 52-4-1. Perhaps it is fitting that they be sent to the regional against the team with the #2 best record in D1 Softball--the Okla Sooners. While the record for the Terriers is impressive, a little perspective can be useful. The latest RPI that I could find had them at 34, which isn't bad, however, their SOS was a whopping 183. One might wonder with that SOS why they didn't go undefeated this year. Well, their losses were against Duke, South Carolina, Northwestern, and inexplicably Dartmouth. The tie game was against Providence, also a head scratcher. They do have a couple of P5 wins--the best one over Minnesota (but not going to the post season tournament) and two over Mich State (who didn't have wins over MSU though?--they ended up at 21-30). Nevertheless, the Patriot League Champions will come to Norman where their first game will face off against Oregon.

Offense:
Like the Sooners, Boston is a very veteran team. Only their RF is a freshman. All the rest of the starting lineup not pitching are Seniors and Grad Students. They are a pretty solid hitting team with a team BA of .325. They don't hit with a lot of power, only 36 HR's for the team, but they have a nifty 85 doubles (we have 92) and an amazing 20 triples (we have 7), and they can run on you with 51 SB's out of 61 Att.
5 players on their starting lineup are hitting over .300 led by CF Lauren Keleher at .407, and closely followed by 3B Caitlin Coker at .406. These two plus Freshman RF Kylie Doherty account for 22 or the team's 36 HRs. 3B Brooke Deppiesse must be a speedster as she has 6 of the team's triples.
The Terriers have scored 344 runs over 57 games for a hair over 6 runs per game. Strike Outs to Free Bases are pretty even: 180 to 183. Their OB% is .390 and their SLG% is .472. I expect the Terrier supporters are kindred spirits of ours. They have left 374 runners on base so far this season. Our LOB's are 350. And you know how much we (I) have moaned about ours.
Players to watch:
The two power hitters, Keleher and Coker--generally bat 1st and 3rd in the lineup.
Also SS Kayla Roncin batting 2nd. Roncin and Coker both have 10 SB's apiece.

Defense:
Much better defensive team. Only 30 errors total on the year for FLD% of 981. (Ours is .980).

Pitching:
Here's where the rubber meets the road for the Terriers. They have a real stand up pitching staff.
Soph RHP Kasey Ricard leads the way at 27-3 and 1.20 era. she has a whopping 261 K's and only 56 FB's over 204.2 IP. Her BAA is a very low .142. Following close behind is Grad Lefty Allison Boaz at 17-2 and 1.41 era. Boaz has 102 K's to 52 FB's over 134 IP and she has .196 BAA. Grad RHP Lizzy Avery is the 3rd and last pitcher on staff. She is 8-0 and 1.09 era on the year. She has 50 K's to 19 FBs over 51.1 IP. Her BAA is .196. I would think they would be comfortable with any of their pitchers starting against Oregon. But it wouldn't surprise me if they gave Boaz to Oregon in order to save Ricard for the Sooners. I will be interested to see how their pitching staff holds up to the #2 ranked Sooners hitting lineup, considering the softer schedule they have pitched against this season



Univ of Oregon, Eugene OR, (28-19) (13-10) PAC12

The Ducks have to be my disappointment team for 2024. After coming off a pretty good and competitive year last year with a 38-17 record and a trip to the Stillwater Super Regional, and a lot of returning starters, I had them pegged to be one of my top 10 teams for 2024. I was obviously wrong about that. It's not that the Ducks are particularly "bad"....I was just disappointed with how they performed with what they had returning. Or what I thought they had returning.
So I went back to last year and compared what they did back then with now, and the hitting is about the same: Team BA .308 compared to .306 a year ago, OB% .381 to .374, SLG% .492 to .494. SB's actually improved: 86 of 104 vs 75 of 90, and their defense improved a bit from last year .968% to .974. So what's wrong? Apparently their pitching staff has regressed. Last year's hero's Stevie Hansen and Morgan Scott have been really off compared to last year. Have there been injuries? Illness? I don't know. I have not read or heard if there are any issues there. Last year, Hansen was 20-7, 2.63 era with 146.1 IP. This year she is 3-5, 3.54 era with 55.1 IP. Scott last year was 13-7, 2.83 era with 128.2 IP. Now, she's 9-8, 3.45 era with 101.1 IP.

Offense:
Three current starters are hitting over .300 led by R-Jr LF Kai Luschar at .423. Sr CF Hanna Delgado hitting .376 has not played since Apr 12th. It is unknown if she will be available going forward. 5th yr Ariel Carlson has been a very good replacement hitting .366. This team has played a lot of games together as most are Jr's, Sr's, and 5th yr's. It was one of the reasons I was high on them to begin with. The team does have more K's--197 than FB's--161. They've scored 261 runs in 47 games for 5.55 runs per game and as mentioned above, they run the bases very well.
Players to watch:
LF Kai Luschar leads off and is a single hitting machine. She also has 27 out of 32 stolen bases. If she gets on base, she'll be in scoring position very quickly.
CF Carlson hitting 2nd and Sr 1B Alyssa Daniell hitting cleanup are the power hitters for the team hitting 15 and 10 HRs respectively. Carlson also has 17 SB's as well
Important for the Ducks--will Delgado return to the lineup? She has ample replacement, but Carlson can easily be shuffled to another spot in the lineup.

Defense:
A bit improved from last year, 34 errors for .974 FLD%.

Pitching:
Beyond Hansen and Scott, R So RHP Elise Sokolsky is 8-3, 2.41 era over 72.2 IP; Fr RHP Taylor Spencer is 7-3, 2.77 era over 60.2 IP; and Sr RHP Raegan Breedlove is 1-0, 4.27 era over 21.1 IP.
I have no idea how HC Melyssa Lombardi will hand out the pitching assignments for Regionals. She has to get past Boston Univ before she even thinks about who will pitch to the Sooners, or else she'll be using up a rotation for Cleveland St before coming back to Boston again or facing the Sooners. Not a great situation to try to figure out with a pitching staff that is struggling.



---------------------------

I like the way the Sooners came out on fire in the B12 Tournament.

I think the lineup is pretty well set for the post season, with perhaps only a flip-flop here or there in the batting order. Field positions seem to be set.

I am eager to see how the pitching rotation develops for this weekend. I would like to see Karlie Keeney start the weekend off going against Cleveland State and saving Maxwell and/or Deal for Boston or Oregon. I know the regular order for conference play was Maxwell/May/Deal, and that got shuffled a bit right at the end of the season into the Conf Tournament. I do like using May in relief---I thought her coming in to slam the door on Tejas was a great move. Will we get more of that during Regionals?

I think the Sooners take care of business against Cleveland State.
I want to believe the Ducks can win over the Terriers, but I am having trouble trusting Oregon's pitching staff. And I am really wary of Boston's. Oregon can hit you. And they can run and score on you. The trouble is, does Boston go with Ricard on game one and if they win, come back with her again on day two against us? And while Oregon may not have seen Ricard before, they have gone to battle against Meylan, Tinsley and Terry, and Canady. In the end, I think Boston takes the game tomorrow with Oregon.

Good Luck to our Sooner Softball Team!
Boomer!
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Post by BudaSooner »

I haven't seen anywhere that the game between Oregon and Boston will be televised on network TV, so I imagine that it will be streamed on ESPN+. If so, I will probably be watching it!

It would be a huge surprise if OU does not cruise through their Regional 3-0, but a really seasoned, talented team like Boston has very good pitching, and good pitching gives their team a fighting chance against almost anyone.
And of course, Oregon cannot be overlooked, either....
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Post by TropicalSooner »

BudaSooner wrote: Thu May 16, 2024 7:50 pm I haven't seen anywhere that the game between Oregon and Boston will be televised on network TV, so I imagine that it will be streamed on ESPN+. If so, I will probably be watching it!

It would be a huge surprise if OU does not cruise through their Regional 3-0, but a really seasoned, talented team like Boston has very good pitching, and good pitching gives their team a fighting chance against almost anyone.
And of course, Oregon cannot be overlooked, either....
Both the Boston and Oregon websites are showing ESPN+ so I would go with that.
As for our game, it actually will be on linear TV--ESPN U--for those who are unable to utilize streaming services.
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Post by AllSooner »

Copied from: https://www.ncaa.com/news/softball/arti ... s-schedule

2024 NCAA Di softball tournament schedule
Here are the key dates for the 2024 NCAA DI softball tournament:
• Selection show: May 12 at 7 p.m. ET I ESPN2
o See the full selections release here
• Regionals: May 16/17-19
• Super Regionals: May 23-25 or May 24-26
• Women’s College World Series: May 30-June 6/7 in Oklahoma City

2024 DI softball regionals (May 17-19)
*All times Eastern

Norman Regional - Norman, Oklahoma
• Friday. May 17
o Oregon vs. Boston University - 5:30 p.m. - ESPN+
o No. 2 seed Oklahoma (host) vs. Cleveland State - 8 p.m. - ESPNU
• Saturday, May 18
o Game 3: Winner of Game 1 vs. Winner of Game 2 - 3 p.m.
o Game 4: Loser of Game 1 vs. Loser of Game 2 - 5:30 p.m.
o Game 5: Loser of Game 3 vs. Winner of Game 4 - 8 p.m.
• Sunday. May 19
• Game 6 - TBD
• Game 7 if necessary I TBD


I believe all games will be viewable in ESPN+
Go to the URL listed above to see ALL Regional schedules
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Post by TN Sooner »

BudaSooner wrote: Thu May 16, 2024 7:50 pm I haven't seen anywhere that the game between Oregon and Boston will be televised on network TV, so I imagine that it will be streamed on ESPN+. If so, I will probably be watching it!

It would be a huge surprise if OU does not cruise through their Regional 3-0, but a really seasoned, talented team like Boston has very good pitching, and good pitching gives their team a fighting chance against almost anyone.
And of course, Oregon cannot be overlooked, either....
I expect the tv and game schedule to get completely blown up tomorrow - big storms blowing through out the southeast.

Stay nimble and tuned to the OU website/social media to know for sure.
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