a look at txtech 2024 fall softball by Lubbock rag

[inconnu]

Was curious about Canady in her new role, so I looked this up:

https://www.lubbockonline.com/story/spo ... 834501007/

[1KCSoonerFan]

Thanks, Little Fish!

From the article, seems like TT has improved as a team with more than just Canady. Good for them.

Though it is not apples to apples, I am wondering about the same situation for Ms. Bahl at Nebraska. How far can a single, uber-elite athlete take a program? My sports memory tells me the big guns make an impact, but don't always win the gold in a team game.

I'm curious to see if the Nijaree Effect carries over from Stanford - that is, will TT go only as far as she can carry them? When at Stanford, Canady had the stamina to take her team a long way, but wasn't enough to get across the NC line. Maybe that is discounting how good OU was/is to beat her even at her best. I think that is the case, actually - she was good, but not good enough to beat OU.

The temptation to throw Canady as much as she can tolerate must be immense for a new coach, IMO. Those big NIL Donors may want to see some ROI toot-sweet. (Just speculating about the ever increasing monetization of collegiate athletics - and when money is involved, things get intense. I have no experience nor inside knowledge.)

OU is crushing it in recruiting. Patty may miss out on a burning comet of a player now and again, but I think she has a superior strategy. OUSB aggregates a collection of talent on One Team, top to bottom, that few other programs can match. OUSB has a Stable while other programs have a horse.

There are many interesting storylines for the 2025 season!

[inconnu]

Thanks, Little Fish!

From the article, seems like TT has improved as a team with more than just Canady. Good for them.

Though it is not apples to apples, I am wondering about the same situation for Ms. Bahl at Nebraska. How far can a single, uber-elite athlete take a program? My sports memory tells me the big guns make an impact, but don't always win the gold in a team game.

I'm curious to see if the Nijaree Effect carries over from Stanford - that is, will TT go only as far as she can carry them? When at Stanford, Canady had the stamina to take her team a long way, but wasn't enough to get across the NC line. Maybe that is discounting how good OU was/is to beat her even at her best. I think that is the case, actually - she was good, but not good enough to beat OU.

The temptation to throw Canady as much as she can tolerate must be immense for a new coach, IMO. Those big NIL Donors may want to see some ROI toot-sweet. (Just speculating about the ever increasing monetization of collegiate athletics - and when money is involved, things get intense. I have no experience nor inside knowledge.)

OU is crushing it in recruiting. Patty may miss out on a burning comet of a player now and again, but I think she has a superior strategy. OUSB aggregates a collection of talent on One Team, top to bottom, that few other programs can match. OUSB has a Stable while other programs have a horse.

There are many interesting storylines for the 2025 season!

HOW DARE YOU call me a little fish! I am the PRIDE OF THE KOBUK RIVER! I would love to hear or read some candid remarks from Sam Landry about the new coach at Txtech, him being the former coach at Louisiana Lafayette, where Sam played for him before her transfer to OU. He took several players from Louisiana with him to Lubbock and they look pretty good on paper(or internet). I would be willing to bet that Canady will pitch at least 2 out of 3 games in their series with lOSUr

[1KCSoonerFan]

Just messin' with ya, inconnu! Ha! The Kobuk River looks very wild and beautiful...and home of the mysterious inconnu fish. You have every right to be proud!

It slipped my mind that Landry's former coach is now at TT. Yes, a candid conversation would be interesting. Do you think TT offered her, too?

[inconnu]

That IS a good question. Mostly I think Sam Landry just liked what she saw and knew about OU(having played against the Sooners last year at Love's Field) My guess is that the Louisiana coach was/is well thought of, but Sam thinks she has a better shot at a NC at OU, even with all the new players. She might have a better opportunity for more playing time here, too, since we don't have Canady. Also, she might not be too enthralled with Lubbock.

[1KCSoonerFan]

The words 'enthralled' and 'Lubbock' are rarely encountered in proximity of each other.

I'm sure Sam would have preferred OU over about any place else that offered - as you said. She seems thrilled to be in Norman - and Coach is quite happy, too. Lord knows the team needed her for 2025.

[inconnu]

If I read that article from the Lubbock paper correctly, the Louisiana now TTech coach took another one of the Louisiana pitchers with him to Lubbock. Seemed she had a pretty good record at Louisiana last year. We may never know if Sam Landry was invited to join that former Louisiana crowd in Lubbock.

[1KCSoonerFan]

Is there an analytics ratio of pitching, fielders, and batters (offense vs defense) that will predict likely outcomes? After all, the HUGE corporate players seem to think so. (Casinos, and their analytical math/methods, are the industry to study for some top notch findings, IMO.) Why not OUSB? Data is an Arms Race for advantage.

I don't usually think I am smarter than millions of factual data points processed at the speed of light....but sometimes I cling to what I want to believe is true rather than what the data shows. Ego? Fear? Projection of some unconscious combination of the two? Probably.

I have come to see that analytics are merely a statement of reality, not a personal attack on my belief system. It's my task to adapt - not the number's job to adapt - to what I believe to be true.

In that light, I hope OUSB has a ratio of pitching, field defense, and batting offense that is favorable to winning. The data will remain the same whether I want to believe it or not.

[OUBeliever56A]

That is a lot of stuff to sort through.

I would say this. "Run Differential/Game" is a key stat to determine or predict whether a team is successful or not. The higher the difference is between how many runs a team scores vs how many runs they allow in any given game is a good barometer. IF two teams have approximately the same Run Differential/Game, favor the team that allows fewer runs (better pitching and defense generally). IF the two teams are still the same, favor the team that hits the most HR or higher Slug%. Power wins more than non-power does.

Does that help?

[oufanforever]

Is there an analytics ratio of pitching, fielders, and batters (offense vs defense) that will predict likely outcomes? After all, the HUGE corporate players seem to think so. (Casinos, and their analytical math/methods, are the industry to study for some top notch findings, IMO.) Why not OUSB? Data is an Arms Race for advantage.

I don't usually think I am smarter than millions of factual data points processed at the speed of light....but sometimes I cling to what I want to believe is true rather than what the data shows. Ego? Fear? Projection of some unconscious combination of the two? Probably.

I have come to see that analytics are merely a statement of reality, not a personal attack on my belief system. It's my task to adapt - not the number's job to adapt - to what I believe to be true.

In that light, I hope OUSB has a ratio of pitching, field defense, and batting offense that is favorable to winning. The data will remain the same whether I want to believe it or not.

In the practice I got to watch, they showed all the data they are working with on the score board. They track literally everything. For example, a pitch's spin rate, spin efficiency, tilt angle, location, amount of break in what direction. I am 100% certain they have predictors that tells them who to recruit and how to develop them to maximize their ceiling. Just this past week, there were presentations at the NFCA convention talking about analytics. Tara Henry posted one conclusion slide from one presentation on twitter. I am not sure Patty attended, but I definitely heard people have saw Rocha in attendance at that conference.

[1KCSoonerFan]

LHP's.
Off-Speed.
High Velo.

A trinity of analytic success for pitching (as read off the screen at that seminar). Now that the analytics secret is out, what is a program to do?

Knowing this math, it comes down to choosing and developing the pitchers that have those skills. Not sure why LHP's are so important other than most players are right handed batters? (interesting to see the amount of players that throw right and bat left. OU has a few. Awhile ago, it must have been known that batting leftie was an advantage to go far in the high level game. Will more switch hitters start appearing in the years ahead? I gotta think so! Humans can adapt to almost anything they are trained to do.)

As new and novel as the sweepstakes are these days, it all seems to come back to the horses in the race....and the eyes of the trainers to spot them.

We haven't seen anything yet I have a feeling. Technology, AI, and the like keep marching on ahead of our understanding of it and where it can lead. Not an anti-tech alarmist here! I'm just amazed every morning I wake up to some new awareness of algorhythms (sp), data collection and metrics of all spots and stripes - News Sources to new socks you bought at Wal Mart, tech is aware and instantly responding to it. Why not softball?

That's cool and all....unless it discourages life-long participation in sports for young people who get discouraged because they don't have the analytic data to support participation by their schools or other teams, IMO. Sports have such a wide reaching benefit for society whether or not the boys and girls go on to play on a high level. Health, fitness, teamwork, discipline and goal setting, to name a few benefits, are all benefits to a healthy society.
It may be a myth, but the old saying goes that Waterloo was won on the soccer pitches of England. True or not, it speaks to participation in sports as a national interest.

Not going George Orwell here, just amazed that there are so many things rocketing ahead faster than I can absorb them. Again, not necessarily a bad thing.

[navier]

Not sure why LHP's are so important other than most players are right handed batters? (interesting to see the amount of players that throw right and bat left. OU has a few. Awhile ago, it must have been known that batting leftie was an advantage to go far in the high level game. Will more switch hitters start appearing in the years ahead? I gotta think so! Humans can adapt to almost anything they are trained to do.)

In baseball there is an advantage to hitting OPPOSITE of what the pitcher is throwing (eg RHP/LH batter) for a number of reasons (easier to pick up the ball, curveballs/sliders break into you, etc) which is why you see some guys switch hit in baseball. In softball the advantage is much less due smaller break on the ball and release point of the pitch...it's why you rarely see a switch hitter in softball. If the data for whiff % says there is an advantage to being a LHP in softball, regardless of what side of the plate the batter is hitting, then it has to be purely due to the fact that hitters don't see nearly as many LHP. In travel ball my daughter (who plays on a National-level team so her "training" is similar to many P4 hitters) might see 1 LHP for every 10-15 RHP she sees. That ratio goes down in college (maybe 1 in 5?) and the hitter's computer (eg their brain) just doesn't have enough stored data...

As to why many RH throwers hit lefty, while the advantage in softball is small compared to baseball, there probably is still some advantage to being a LH hitter facing a RHP and there are a lot more RHP. Also you are closer to first which helps beat out some balls, and perhaps most importantly, most softball players start being trained by their baseball playing Dads.. My daughter can run and I wish I had switched her to the left side but alas I wasn't thinking...

[OUBeliever56A]

As pointed out above, there is a huge difference between MLB ststs and D1 Softball Stats and how they breakdown.

Take this example:

For MLB in 2024:

• The best BA by any team was .263, the worse was .221 for a range of .042 points of BA.

• the best OB% by any team was .337, the worse was .278 for a range of 0.59 points of OB%.

• The best Slug% by any team was .446, the worse was ..340 for a range of .106 points of Slug%.

For the SEC Conference in Softball in 2024 (stats for all games):

• The best BA by any team was .330, the worse was .221 for a range of .088 points of BA.

• The best OB% by any team was .439, the worse was .341 for a range of 0.98 points of OB%.

• The best Slug% by any team was .585, the worse was 365 for a range of .220 points of BA.

As you can see, the range for the SEC in D1 Softball was roughly twice the range for MLB. The are several reasons why.
1) MLB plays roughy the same schedule with each team. It is not a 1-for-1 schedule, but it is roughly the same.
2) The SEC full season schedule in no way is similar from team to team. Even in the SEC conference play, there was only 8 teams played out of 13. (It will be 15 in 2025). The schedules for D1 softball is tremendously different between teams even in the same conference.
3) If you consider the range of softball stats for all conferences instead of just one confernece (SEC) the differences would be even larger in softball.

If you just add the Big 12 from 2024 to the SEC stats, the ranges increase for D1 softball to a range of .128 points of BA, a range of .127 for OB% and a range of .284 for Slug%. As you add conferences the lower stats by bad teams increase the range. When you compare the schedules for that range of teams, the schedules for the most part has very few common opponents.

The reverse of the offense is where the stats really are different:

• The MLB range in ERA was 3.49 to 5.47 for a range of 1.98.

• The range of the SEC in ERA was from 1.45 to 3.86 for a range of 2.41.

• With the Big 12 added to the SEC, the range becomes from 1.45 to 6.13 for a range of 4.68.

Yes, the pitching the pitching in the SEC is that much better than the Big 12 pitching. Yes, 40% of the Big 12 pitching staffs had from a 5.11 to a 6.13 ERA and those teams were 1.25 runs worse than any team in the SEC.

Food-for-thought.

[navier]

As pointed out above, there is a huge difference between MLB ststs and D1 Softball Stats and how they breakdown.

Take this example:

For MLB in 2024:

• The best BA by any team was .263, the worse was .221 for a range of .042 points of BA.

• the best OB% by any team was .337, the worse was .278 for a range of 0.59 points of OB%.

• The best Slug% by any team was .446, the worse was ..340 for a range of .106 points of Slug%.

For the SEC Conference in Softball in 2024 (stats for all games):

• The best BA by any team was .330, the worse was .221 for a range of .088 points of BA.

• The best OB% by any team was .439, the worse was .341 for a range of 0.98 points of OB%.

• The best Slug% by any team was .585, the worse was 365 for a range of .220 points of BA.

As you can see, the range for the SEC in D1 Softball was roughly twice the range for MLB. The are several reasons why.
1) MLB plays roughy the same schedule with each team. It is not a 1-for-1 schedule, but it is roughly the same.
2) The SEC full season schedule in no way is similar from team to team. Even in the SEC conference play, there was only 8 teams played out of 13. (It will be 15 in 2025). The schedules for D1 softball is tremendously different between teams even in the same conference.
3) If you consider the range of softball stats for all conferences instead of just one confernece (SEC) the differences would be even larger in softball.

If you just add the Big 12 from 2024 to the SEC stats, the ranges increase for D1 softball to a range of .128 points of BA, a range of .127 for OB% and a range of .284 for Slug%. As you add conferences the lower stats by bad teams increase the range. When you compare the schedules for that range of teams, the schedules for the most part has very few common opponents.

The reverse of the offense is where the stats really are different:

• The MLB range in ERA was 3.49 to 5.47 for a range of 1.98.

• The range of the SEC in ERA was from 1.45 to 3.86 for a range of 2.41.

• With the Big 12 added to the SEC, the range becomes from 1.45 to 6.13 for a range of 4.68.

Yes, the pitching the pitching in the SEC is that much better than the Big 12 pitching. Yes, 40% of the Big 12 pitching staffs had from a 5.11 to a 6.13 ERA and those teams were 1.25 runs worse than any team in the SEC.

Food-for-thought.

You might want to quote the post you are responding to because other than my post, which has nothing to do with anything you just posted (kudos for the data mining though....), nobody else referred to MLB in this thread.

With regards to your reasons for differences, MLB has a much smaller range of talent disparity even when compared to a conference like the SEC.

[OUBeliever56A]

In this and another thread here, there has been a discussion about what makes a team good in general. RH Pitching, LH pitching and all that versus various hitter LH and RH.

As I said above in an answer to "KC" run differential is the stat to look at.

In the other thread the home-field advantage was quoted as 0.25 at home vs on the road. In that thread it was shown that the run differential is huge compared to that MLB stat. It is more like 6 runs plus for Oklahoma.

I just tried to show why MLB really does not compare to D1 Softball and why.....

Maybe I got the two threads confused, my bad. If I ruined your party or this thread, I apologize. It is still good info to know. (At least I think so.)