who beat us in 24?

Forum to discuss the best softball team in the country
TALSOONER
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who beat us in 24?

Post by TALSOONER »

Only 7 loses last year

Ragin cajuns
Texas
Texas
BYU
OSU
OSU
UF

And they look to be just as good this year.
OUBeliever56A
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

TALSOONER wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:30 am Only 7 loses last year

Ragin cajuns
Texas
Texas
BYU
OSU
OSU
UF

And they look to be just as good this year.
I do not understand how you can feel that OU will be just as good in 2025 as they were in 2024. Here is why.

In 2024, the Sooners had these hitting stats: .363 BA, .468 OB%, .643 Slug% - They hit 109 doubles, 8 triples and 122 HRs and stole 66 bases in 80 tries.
In 2024, the Sooners had these pitching stats: 1.99 ERA, 23 shutouts, 18 CG and allowed an .190 BAA and a Slugging% Against of .316 with an OB% of .276.
In 2024, the Sooners made 34 errors for a Fielding% of .980.

Here is what that means and what has to happen to recreate those stats.

Hitting:
The returing "starters" - Emerling C, Sanders 1B, Agbayani 2B, Pickering LF, Dayton CF and Parker DP had these total stats in 2024:
  • 0.379 BA, 0.507 OB%, 0.656 Slug% - They hit 52 doubles, 9 triples, 61 HRs with 45 steals in 55 tries. That was in 1147 PA and 911 ABs.
I think that Parker and Pickering will hit more HRs in 2025 than they hit in 2024. I hope Sanders will have a better year in 2025 than she had on 2023-2024. I think Emerling, Dayton and Agbyani should do about what they did in 2024. So, maybe the "returners" improve a bit.

If those six players repeat their season from 2024 in 2025, that is the beginning point for the 2025 stats. To replicate the 2024 stats, the 3 additioanal starters have to created these stats:
  • 0.343 BA, 0.434 OB%, 0.641 Slug% with 928 PA, 799 AB, with 57 doubles, 0 triples needed, with 61 HRs. and 21 stolen bases with 4 caught stealing.

The "returning" starters will pick up some of those at bats but the 3 "new" starters, SS - 3B and RF has be really good combined to hit .343 BA, walk and pickup HBP 129 times and hit 57 doubles and 61 HRs. That would be quite the seasons for what is expected to be NellyMac at 3B, Barker or Garica at SS and Bland/Milloy/Coor in RF. I can see NellyMac hitting .325-ish and have 15 HRs. I can see the Shortstops over .300 with some power and I can see the RF players hitting over .300 with some power. But that is not a .343 BA or almost 20 doubles and 20 HRs each.

It is true that other players will add some stats, but can they meet those lofty stats as well? It may be tough for the "returners" to mtch their 2024 stats with 25-27 games played against SEC teams. Their non-conference schedule is not what it has been but those stats better be lofty before SEC play begins.

Pitching:
In 2024, the Sooners had an 1.99 ERA - 411.0 IP. 282 hits allowed, 129 Runs, 117 ER, 154 W+HB, 393 Ks with 37 doubles, 2 triples and 49 HRs allowed.

The Sooners will not have Maxwell, Keeney and Geurin in 2025. But they add Landry, Smith and Lowry for 2025.

Here is what the "returners" stats look from 2024 --> This is Deal, Monticelli, Landry and Smith:

The totals are: 1.81 ERA, 498.0 IP, 346 hits allowed, 164 Runs, 129 ER, 217 W+HB, 494 Ks with 50 doubles, 3 triples and 35 HRs allowed.

- If you compare the Hits allowed/Per IP, the W+HB allowed/Per IP and the Total Bases Allowed/Per IP they are roughly the same with the W+HB a little higher.
- As you can see, the ERA is actually lower.
- But, Landry and Smith account for 400 of the 498 innings. The inning distribution for 2025 will be divided more evenly with Landry and Smith pitching more innings that what Deal, Lowry and Monticelli will probably pitch. Maybe is it something like 140 for Landry, 120 for Smith, 90 for Deal, 50 for Lowry and what is left for Monticeli. That is alot of speculation on my part. Deal could pitch more and Smith and Landry less. Lowry could pitch more. There is alot to be seen at this point.

But the point is, the pitchers did pitch with the same effectiveness in 2024 with Landy and Smith replacing Maxwell, Keeney and Geurin while pitching more innings. That is good. But those innings by Landry and Smith were not against the SEC just like the innings by Deal and Monticelli and Lowry will face D1 hittiers for the 1st time.

Oklahoma may be close to the same stats from their pitching stats from 2024 next season. But we do not really know how to factor the SEC games (25-27 of them) into the stats. The pitching stats will likely go up just because of that.

Defense:
For a Sooner team, 34 errors was high as they have around 24-28 errors a season normally. Can the Sooners repeat that with new C, a new 2B, a new SS, a new 3B and a new RF? Those positions have been very good for the Sooners the last 4 years. Very good. Let's say that the Sooners will be playing well to have errors in the mid 30s in 2025. I believe they can do that. Probably no more than 39, I hope.

Conclusion:
Almost everything has to go well, sometimes very well to equal the Oklahoma 2024 team. that may happen, but it is not predictible that it will. I do remain optimistic that the Pitching will be good enough. I remain optimistic that the defense will still be veey good. But I am not sure about the hitting. And then I have to include the 25-27 game against SEC teams. That will drive the stats down more than the Big 12 schedule of 24 games did in 2024.

I think a record with less than 10 losses will be a pretty good record for Oklahoma. Less than 7 losses would be great. I believe OU will be in the Supers and have an greater than 50% chance to reach the World Series. But the Sooners need to play very well to do that. The hitting, the pitching and the defense will have to be very good to equal 2024 stats.
TALSOONER
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Post by TALSOONER »

I enjoy your detailed responses. Like my wife, you love numbers, while I prefer overview and final score. I appreciate my wife's outlook and attention to detail. Jack Webb said Give me the facts, just the facts, I prefer give me a theory I'll like and move on.

If we plot the numbers from the last 5 years, I suspect none of them will be consistent upward growth, but ups and downs. If the team has worse numbers than even the worst year of the past 5, we can still have a great season and win the WCWS championship...

The fun will be watching the games and the numbers you provide, thanks

I'm thinking we'll start about 4 or 5 but be #1 by conference play.....
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Post by OU_Tom »

2025 is definitely a rebuilding year for OU. Most of the starters are either freshmen or transfers. My guess is we will win all of our out of conference games but we will be challenged in SEC action.

I still am very worried about our pitching. I am very glad that we were able to pick up Landry; she looks like she will lead the staff. Maxwell's loss was big and I am not sure we have a pitcher who will fill her shoes. I hope Smith can make the jump from a small, private college to OU/SEC.
::rice2:: :dude:
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Post by viacool »

Tom I am like you with concerns about pitching but not so much with hitting. I don't think there's any SEC team that can match the following four hitters if they can come close to matching last year's numbers:
  • Agbayani OBP 534
  • Parker OBP 516
  • Pickering OBP 513
  • Dayton OBP 510
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Post by cushcreekmont »

The texsa wins last year were in Austin. They have to play OU in Norman this year. First year in the SEC will be different with some new venues, but Love's Field will be hugely different for OUr opponents (including texsa).

In SEC play, Fla seems to have the advantage (in my opinion). Lots of prognosticators have texsa as #1 (nationally as well as SEC). Since texsa has to play on the road against both OU AND Fla, they are likely to lose any and all tie-breakers.

OU plays at Fla, so UF has the biggest advantage over the other top 3 schools.

Prior to watching ANY games or seeing any scores, I would make the top three UF, OU, and texsa in that order.
texsa sucks!
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Post by navier »

cushcreekmont wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 12:30 pm The texsa wins last year were in Austin. They have to play OU in Norman this year. First year in the SEC will be different with some new venues, but Love's Field will be hugely different for OUr opponents (including texsa).

In SEC play, Fla seems to have the advantage (in my opinion). Lots of prognosticators have texsa as #1 (nationally as well as SEC). Since texsa has to play on the road against both OU AND Fla, they are likely to lose any and all tie-breakers.

OU plays at Fla, so UF has the biggest advantage over the other top 3 schools.

Prior to watching ANY games or seeing any scores, I would make the top three UF, OU, and texsa in that order.
I get that texsa is supposed to be a denigration of them but what is the significance of it other than demonstrating you don't respect
them enough to spell the name correctly? Anything else or is that gist of it?
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Post by BudaSooner »

navier wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:49 pm
cushcreekmont wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 12:30 pm The texsa wins last year were in Austin. They have to play OU in Norman this year. First year in the SEC will be different with some new venues, but Love's Field will be hugely different for OUr opponents (including texsa).

In SEC play, Fla seems to have the advantage (in my opinion). Lots of prognosticators have texsa as #1 (nationally as well as SEC). Since texsa has to play on the road against both OU AND Fla, they are likely to lose any and all tie-breakers.

OU plays at Fla, so UF has the biggest advantage over the other top 3 schools.

Prior to watching ANY games or seeing any scores, I would make the top three UF, OU, and texsa in that order.
I get that texsa is supposed to be a denigration of them but what is the significance of it other than demonstrating you don't respect
them enough to spell the name correctly? Anything else or is that gist of it?
I realize that you are not a diehard Sooner fan, so I will respond to your question (directed at cushcreekmont):

You pretty well nailed it, navier, that is indeed the gist of it.
Calling the Horns Texsa is just one of many ways that Sooner fans try to denigrate the Orange from Down Under due to the rivalry.

Anybody with a brain who is not totally blinded with rivalry hate realizes that UT is a top school with a beautiful campus and loads of well-heeled boosters.
It is to OU's credit that we are as competitive with them as we are, IMO. Their resources are far greater than ours. OU has benefited greatly from our proximity to the fertile recruiting grounds of the Lone Star state.

That said, Tuck Fexas and beat the hell outta the Horns!
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navier
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Post by navier »

BudaSooner wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 4:52 pm
navier wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:49 pm
cushcreekmont wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 12:30 pm The texsa wins last year were in Austin. They have to play OU in Norman this year. First year in the SEC will be different with some new venues, but Love's Field will be hugely different for OUr opponents (including texsa).

In SEC play, Fla seems to have the advantage (in my opinion). Lots of prognosticators have texsa as #1 (nationally as well as SEC). Since texsa has to play on the road against both OU AND Fla, they are likely to lose any and all tie-breakers.

OU plays at Fla, so UF has the biggest advantage over the other top 3 schools.

Prior to watching ANY games or seeing any scores, I would make the top three UF, OU, and texsa in that order.
I get that texsa is supposed to be a denigration of them but what is the significance of it other than demonstrating you don't respect
them enough to spell the name correctly? Anything else or is that gist of it?
I realize that you are not a diehard Sooner fan, so I will respond to your question (directed at cushcreekmont):

You pretty well nailed it, navier, that is indeed the gist of it.
Calling the Horns Texsa is just one of many ways that Sooner fans try to denigrate the Orange from Down Under due to the rivalry.

Anybody with a brain who is not totally blinded with rivalry hate realizes that UT is a top school with a beautiful campus and loads of well-heeled boosters.
It is to OU's credit that we are as competitive with them as we are, IMO. Their resources are far greater than ours. OU has benefited greatly from our proximity to the fertile recruiting grounds of the Lone Star state.

That said, Tuck Fexas and beat the hell outta the Horns!
Ok thanks..I didn’t know if there was a deeper significance to it 😂
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Post by inconnu »

I still haven't figured in the WCWS last year, how tx was able to crush fu so badly in their one game, while fu gave OU fits, and then we dispatched tx pretty solidly. FU couldn't hit tx pitchers, but they could ours, including Maxwell.
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Post by navier »

inconnu wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:00 pm I still haven't figured in the WCWS last year, how tx was able to crush fu so badly in their one game, while fu gave OU fits, and then we dispatched tx pretty solidly. FU couldn't hit tx pitchers, but they could ours, including Maxwell.
Maxwell was sweating too much and couldn't find the broad side of a barn against Florida..that was the problem.
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Post by inconnu »

navier wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:29 pm
inconnu wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:00 pm I still haven't figured in the WCWS last year, how tx was able to crush fu so badly in their one game, while fu gave OU fits, and then we dispatched tx pretty solidly. FU couldn't hit tx pitchers, but they could ours, including Maxwell.
Maxwell was sweating too much and couldn't find the broad side of a barn against Florida..that was the problem.
Huh! That was one of the few OU games from last year that I didn't get to watch. Another was the second game against fu, which we won in extra innings. Thanks, Jada.
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Post by navier »

inconnu wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:52 pm
navier wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:29 pm
inconnu wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:00 pm I still haven't figured in the WCWS last year, how tx was able to crush fu so badly in their one game, while fu gave OU fits, and then we dispatched tx pretty solidly. FU couldn't hit tx pitchers, but they could ours, including Maxwell.
Maxwell was sweating too much and couldn't find the broad side of a barn against Florida..that was the problem.
Huh! That was one of the few OU games from last year that I didn't get to watch. Another was the second game against fu, which we won in extra innings. Thanks, Jada.
Maxwell only pitched the second game against Florida. The first game, where they got blown out ,May,Deal and Keeney pitching. Maxwell only gave up 4 hits but 3 of them were HR and she had 5 BB. She couldn't locate at all that game.
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Post by navier »

Both TX and FL have their aces returning. TBH I am surprised Oklahoma is ranked as high as they are, given how much they lost and how much of what they have is unproven, in particular the pitching at the level they will be playing. When is the last time they went into a season without a pitcher with a track record of getting P4 hitters out? Those ranking them must think highly of Landry and/or think
Deal will put it all together.

That said I can see how it would be hard to put the reigning 4 time champ any lower than third.
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Post by inconnu »

That combination of Jesus and Sooner Magic was over the top! With all our youth and inexperience this year, one or both of those items need to kick in again.
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