2023 Softball Season === Can We Win Them ALL ????
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2022 6:14 pm
OK....I know you're not supposed to ask this question (it'll jinx the season-right?).....but it's going to come up and probably sooner than later......so let go ahead and rip the Band-Aid off now and get it out of the way.
So what do you think? Can we run the table??
Over on the robo site...under the "hot takes" thread.....one cat actually asked that question..."can Oklahoma run the table?" Only answer that came back was: "yup" .
But realistically, can we???
What does history tell us? A quick look back at all the National Champions going back to its inception in 1982 shows that NO D1 team has ever gone undefeated. How close have they come? The closest to an undefeated season was UCLA back in 1982 when they finished at 54-2. The next closest records are Oklahoma in 2022 at 59-3 and 1994 Arizona at 64-3. What does this tell me? That going undefeated is hard. Very Very Hard. And looking at our schedule for the upcoming season, for the first time in a long time, that is very very hard. We are loaded with trip wires all throughout the season. Our most obvious ones are: UCLA, Duke, Washington, Stanford, Kentucky-twice!, Mississippi State-twice!, Florida State, Northwestern, Auburn-twice!, LSU!!, plus our annual nemises, Tejas and Okla State. Many of those teams made it to Super Regionals last year or are usual annual powerhouses. Heck, you might as well have thrown in Bama, Florida, Tenn, VT and Clemson and you would have almost played every team in the country that has a shot at the WCWS. It will be very easy for Coach Gasso to get our team "up" for the well known opponents on our schedule. It's the next batch of teams waiting in the wings that really concern me. Think back a minute and recall the teams last year that had us biting our nails unexpectedly: Utah (2-1), Baylor (3-1), UAB!! (2-0) TAMU (game1- 3-2)....ALL of those teams came to play. And it's those kinds of teams that I think our schedule is full of this year....Cal St Fullerton, Liberty, Utah, Wichita St, Loyola Marymount, on and on. We are the one that's circled on everybody's calendar this year. That's a lot to ask of our team, no matter how many .300 hitters and 100+ strike out pitchers you have on staff.
________________
Why we can run the table:
Offense:
We have 4 returning starters and 3 incoming transfers likely to start with .700+ Slug %'s and 126 HRs between them. This does not include Hansen who was injured much of last season but is now healthy, and Boone who was just under the Slug% number this fall but always seems to get on base somehow and likely has RF nailed down.
We have an amazing bench filled with players that would most likely be starters on any other P5 conference team.
Speed: Coor and Hodge as pinch runners add to an already impressive cast of base runners in Coleman, Lyons, Jennings, and Boone. We are in a very good position to roll over the line up to the top of the batting order with potential of having very fast runners already on base.
Defense:
I would match our defense up against anybody's.
Middle Field: SS Lyons; 2B Jennings; CF Coleman---Solid
Right side: 1B Sanders (appears to be) RF Boone
Catcher: Hansen
DP will be strong with Lee, Nugent, and Erickson.
The only question would seem to be who starts 3B and LF, and right now I would have to go with Torres at 3B and Brito back in LF.
And Pitching Staff: (OK--here we go...)
#1 Bahl === 22-1; ERA: 1.09; App: 28; IP: 141; SO: 205; B/Ave: .145; HR: 4; (in spite of being injured most of post-season)
#2 Storako == 25-8; ERA: 1.71; App: 38; IP: 200; SO: 300; B/Ave: .164; HR: 22 (Storako must have felt like she was carrying her team on her shoulders alone. Their #2 pitcher was 8-7 and only had 102 IP.
#3 May === 15-1; ERA: 1.30; App: 28; IP: 91; SO: 99; B/Ave: .144; HR: 6; (always solid--the ice queen---can come in relief and shut you down)
Deal === Appears to be a future starter--will get chances in games against weaker opponents (which we don't have a whole lot of)
Geurin===Appears to be a future reliever---also will get spot relief chances when games get one sided.
Let's hope for an injury free year for our pitchers---and if that happens, they will be a force to be reckoned with!
__________________
Why we won't:
First of all: Schedule!
See Above Paragraph on History.
The Mark Campbell Invitational will be extremely important for us. Talk about land mines!
First up is Duke. And don't forget, they have a magic weapon this year: Sydney Romero--hitting and infield coach.
Also, Duke had 6 seniors last season and graduated all of them except for one that is coming back as a Grad Sr.(covid yr). All had covid year eligibility but only one used it---I thought it strange. Maybe Duke graduates are more likely to move on after their degree? Stanford is also a strong team. They beat Alabama twice in Tuscaloosa to earn the right to host their own Super--which they then lost to Oregon St in two games. Perhaps the Alabama Regional wore them out. And after Stanford is a night game with Washington Huskies. Gabby Plain is gone and they are going through a rebuild--or rather a reload, I guess. Look for them make another run to hosting their own Supers again. And as a bonus, they will not have forgotton the 9-1 run rule thrashing we gave then in our Regional on ABC National Television two years ago. There are a lot of tripwires this first weekend and if we have a weakness or weaknesses, they will show up immediately.
Leadership---
The last several seasons had the steady hand of Elam as Captain and Alo as coach and motivator. Those two gems are no longer with us and they are very large shoes to fill. Lynnsie and Jocelyn were the steady hands that were able to calm the stormy waters the last two seasons and were big reasons we only lost 4 games 2 years ago and only 3 games last year. Do we have anyone to step into those roles? The last time we were soundly beaten and embarrassed was at the hands of UCLA, 16-3 in the 2019 Finals. Similar to what we did to Texas last year. There are only two players left on our team that remember that: Grace Lyons, and Grace Green. Last year in addition to them were our leaders Elam and Alo.
Chemistry---
This is such a vague concept but is probably the most critical. Many challenges that appear huge can be overcome when a team's personalities all click together at same time: double plays, hit and run, double steals, stolen home runs---team excitement, "I've got your back" mentality. We've seen this displayed consistently for the last two years. Do we still have that? Seven players on the team--Seven--already have two national championship rings. Is there such a thing as too many? Is the drive and excitement still there for those who've been there already?
Unknown Pitchers throwing the game of their lives---
We know this one all too well. Remember Baylor's Dariana Orme? She was two strikes away from throwing a 4 hit shutout when Jennings lifted a 3-1 pitch over the fence for a 3 run HR walkoff win. And how about UAB's Sarah Cespedes, who pushed us to seven innings last year, with only Coleman's and Elam's solo shots to break a scoreless tie in the bottom of the sixth inning. And we remember all too well the losses to Hailey Dolcini, Morgan Day, Megan Faraimo last year. This year we will see Faraimo again early on and Danielle Williams again--early this time before she's exhausted from carrying her team to the end of the season, and also Kathryn Sandercock of Florida State. But who will be the unknowns this year--the Orme's and the Cespedes's? Will it come from Loyola Marymount? Auburn? UIC???
All in all, I believe we will have a very successful season again. We have all the tools to do so. But we have to pay attention to the little things. The details. Find Leadership. Establish Chemstry. Lyons and Green need to be the steadying hands as we navigate the stormy seas this season.
Can we win three Nattys in a row? Probably.
Can we go undefeated? Probably not.
With the schedule that we have I think we have to be aware that we may lose somewhere between 3 and 6 games this year. That doesn't mean we can't bring home more gold rings.
So what do you think? Can we run the table??
Over on the robo site...under the "hot takes" thread.....one cat actually asked that question..."can Oklahoma run the table?" Only answer that came back was: "yup" .
But realistically, can we???
What does history tell us? A quick look back at all the National Champions going back to its inception in 1982 shows that NO D1 team has ever gone undefeated. How close have they come? The closest to an undefeated season was UCLA back in 1982 when they finished at 54-2. The next closest records are Oklahoma in 2022 at 59-3 and 1994 Arizona at 64-3. What does this tell me? That going undefeated is hard. Very Very Hard. And looking at our schedule for the upcoming season, for the first time in a long time, that is very very hard. We are loaded with trip wires all throughout the season. Our most obvious ones are: UCLA, Duke, Washington, Stanford, Kentucky-twice!, Mississippi State-twice!, Florida State, Northwestern, Auburn-twice!, LSU!!, plus our annual nemises, Tejas and Okla State. Many of those teams made it to Super Regionals last year or are usual annual powerhouses. Heck, you might as well have thrown in Bama, Florida, Tenn, VT and Clemson and you would have almost played every team in the country that has a shot at the WCWS. It will be very easy for Coach Gasso to get our team "up" for the well known opponents on our schedule. It's the next batch of teams waiting in the wings that really concern me. Think back a minute and recall the teams last year that had us biting our nails unexpectedly: Utah (2-1), Baylor (3-1), UAB!! (2-0) TAMU (game1- 3-2)....ALL of those teams came to play. And it's those kinds of teams that I think our schedule is full of this year....Cal St Fullerton, Liberty, Utah, Wichita St, Loyola Marymount, on and on. We are the one that's circled on everybody's calendar this year. That's a lot to ask of our team, no matter how many .300 hitters and 100+ strike out pitchers you have on staff.
________________
Why we can run the table:
Offense:
We have 4 returning starters and 3 incoming transfers likely to start with .700+ Slug %'s and 126 HRs between them. This does not include Hansen who was injured much of last season but is now healthy, and Boone who was just under the Slug% number this fall but always seems to get on base somehow and likely has RF nailed down.
We have an amazing bench filled with players that would most likely be starters on any other P5 conference team.
Speed: Coor and Hodge as pinch runners add to an already impressive cast of base runners in Coleman, Lyons, Jennings, and Boone. We are in a very good position to roll over the line up to the top of the batting order with potential of having very fast runners already on base.
Defense:
I would match our defense up against anybody's.
Middle Field: SS Lyons; 2B Jennings; CF Coleman---Solid
Right side: 1B Sanders (appears to be) RF Boone
Catcher: Hansen
DP will be strong with Lee, Nugent, and Erickson.
The only question would seem to be who starts 3B and LF, and right now I would have to go with Torres at 3B and Brito back in LF.
And Pitching Staff: (OK--here we go...)
#1 Bahl === 22-1; ERA: 1.09; App: 28; IP: 141; SO: 205; B/Ave: .145; HR: 4; (in spite of being injured most of post-season)
#2 Storako == 25-8; ERA: 1.71; App: 38; IP: 200; SO: 300; B/Ave: .164; HR: 22 (Storako must have felt like she was carrying her team on her shoulders alone. Their #2 pitcher was 8-7 and only had 102 IP.
#3 May === 15-1; ERA: 1.30; App: 28; IP: 91; SO: 99; B/Ave: .144; HR: 6; (always solid--the ice queen---can come in relief and shut you down)
Deal === Appears to be a future starter--will get chances in games against weaker opponents (which we don't have a whole lot of)
Geurin===Appears to be a future reliever---also will get spot relief chances when games get one sided.
Let's hope for an injury free year for our pitchers---and if that happens, they will be a force to be reckoned with!
__________________
Why we won't:
First of all: Schedule!
See Above Paragraph on History.
The Mark Campbell Invitational will be extremely important for us. Talk about land mines!
First up is Duke. And don't forget, they have a magic weapon this year: Sydney Romero--hitting and infield coach.
Also, Duke had 6 seniors last season and graduated all of them except for one that is coming back as a Grad Sr.(covid yr). All had covid year eligibility but only one used it---I thought it strange. Maybe Duke graduates are more likely to move on after their degree? Stanford is also a strong team. They beat Alabama twice in Tuscaloosa to earn the right to host their own Super--which they then lost to Oregon St in two games. Perhaps the Alabama Regional wore them out. And after Stanford is a night game with Washington Huskies. Gabby Plain is gone and they are going through a rebuild--or rather a reload, I guess. Look for them make another run to hosting their own Supers again. And as a bonus, they will not have forgotton the 9-1 run rule thrashing we gave then in our Regional on ABC National Television two years ago. There are a lot of tripwires this first weekend and if we have a weakness or weaknesses, they will show up immediately.
Leadership---
The last several seasons had the steady hand of Elam as Captain and Alo as coach and motivator. Those two gems are no longer with us and they are very large shoes to fill. Lynnsie and Jocelyn were the steady hands that were able to calm the stormy waters the last two seasons and were big reasons we only lost 4 games 2 years ago and only 3 games last year. Do we have anyone to step into those roles? The last time we were soundly beaten and embarrassed was at the hands of UCLA, 16-3 in the 2019 Finals. Similar to what we did to Texas last year. There are only two players left on our team that remember that: Grace Lyons, and Grace Green. Last year in addition to them were our leaders Elam and Alo.
Chemistry---
This is such a vague concept but is probably the most critical. Many challenges that appear huge can be overcome when a team's personalities all click together at same time: double plays, hit and run, double steals, stolen home runs---team excitement, "I've got your back" mentality. We've seen this displayed consistently for the last two years. Do we still have that? Seven players on the team--Seven--already have two national championship rings. Is there such a thing as too many? Is the drive and excitement still there for those who've been there already?
Unknown Pitchers throwing the game of their lives---
We know this one all too well. Remember Baylor's Dariana Orme? She was two strikes away from throwing a 4 hit shutout when Jennings lifted a 3-1 pitch over the fence for a 3 run HR walkoff win. And how about UAB's Sarah Cespedes, who pushed us to seven innings last year, with only Coleman's and Elam's solo shots to break a scoreless tie in the bottom of the sixth inning. And we remember all too well the losses to Hailey Dolcini, Morgan Day, Megan Faraimo last year. This year we will see Faraimo again early on and Danielle Williams again--early this time before she's exhausted from carrying her team to the end of the season, and also Kathryn Sandercock of Florida State. But who will be the unknowns this year--the Orme's and the Cespedes's? Will it come from Loyola Marymount? Auburn? UIC???
All in all, I believe we will have a very successful season again. We have all the tools to do so. But we have to pay attention to the little things. The details. Find Leadership. Establish Chemstry. Lyons and Green need to be the steadying hands as we navigate the stormy seas this season.
Can we win three Nattys in a row? Probably.
Can we go undefeated? Probably not.
With the schedule that we have I think we have to be aware that we may lose somewhere between 3 and 6 games this year. That doesn't mean we can't bring home more gold rings.