Confidence Level Heading into Bedlam

[1KCSoonerFan]

My Triple Towers of Confidence going into Bedlam:

Offense:
OU leads the nation in run-scoring and is tops in all the major categories.

Defense:
Making defensive plays that win games, not errors that lose them, is also what OU does better than anyone.

Pitching:
The best pitching staff in the game. Team ERA is around 0.78 (?). Lots of experience in the circle, too, in big game situations.

The only cracks in the castle are undisciplined at-bats. If we can consistently swing at good pitches, we will be just fine.

I was listening to the OSU game on the radio last night and their announcer said, "It's not about making errors, it is about WHEN you make errors." I noted that many of OSU's recent string of loses were close, low-scoring games. It makes sense that in those scenarios any little hitch or hiccup can be the difference in a win or loss. The low scores also indicate good pitching and defense for OSU.

A couple timely errors may have cost OSU the game last night, but I wasn't sure it was the only reason. The Mean Green was playing well and had a lead before the wheels started coming off the Cowgirl defense if I recall correctly. OSU scored its only run on a solo HR by Factor.

I'm not sure if the loss will fire-up or damp-down the Cowgirls. I know how OU usually responds to a loss - with renewed energy and focus. Also, more and more is on the line for the Pokes in terms of hosting post-season games. Will desperation and pressure take a toll - or get the best out of them?

If the Three Towers are working together, it may not matter what the Cowgirls want to do.

[The Far Journey]

I'm confident OU is substantially the best team in the country with a divide to the next teams below them. That said, games have to be played and anything can happen. That's what worries me. But one thing Patty does better than any other coach in the country and the players respond to it, is instilling in them not to be caught up in the moment but to focus on the play at hand whether in the batter's box or the field. One pitch at a time.

[White River]

Certainly a loss can get a team's attention and help them refocus on issues they can improve on. However, a pattern of losing is an indication of problems and losing 7 of your last 9 is an indication that there are several problems requiring attention. That type of pattern tends to lead more problems rather than quick solutions.

A look at the stats indicates OSU's last 7 loses are predominately hitting and defense. The loss to Iowa State with the 6 walks is the exception.

Hitting:

OSU has 45 home runs on the season. However, of their 7 loses, last night is the only game lost where they hit a Home Run.

OSU has out hit its opponents in 4 of the 7 loses, but, extra base hits have disappeared in the 7 loses and many of those runners have been left on base.

Defense:
OSU has a .980 fielding percentage on the season, but, 9 of their 27 errors this season came in those 7 loses.

OSU Stats 2.png (16.84 KiB) Viewed 558 times

Like I've said before, OSU is dangerous and has the potential to put the pieces together and play tough. I'll say this, if I was a team struggling with hitting and defense, OU is not the team I would want to play in the HOPES I will correct the problems I'm having!

Boomer

[OUBeliever56A]

Looking at the last three years, here is what leads me to being confident in 2023.

2021 - The Oklahoma Sooner pitching had been spotty all season as we looked to Bedlam in Stillwater. Juarez was hittable for much of the season, Saile could be good but she could have trouble throwing strikes. May had pitched pretty well, but she was a freshman. The offense had been just fabulous. Tremendous power, great BA and overall a force to be reckoned with.

In G#1, Juarez had a tough start and gave up 5 run in 2.1 innings. May stepped up though and pitched 3.2 innings of good relief and gave up just one run. The Sooner offense was human in this game. In their first look at Eberle, the Sooners managed 5 hits with 2 HRs by Alo and Coleman but were held to only 4 runs in the game. The 4-6 loss was the Sooners 2nd loss of the season.

In G#2, Saile was good as she pitched 6 innings giving up 4 runs with 2 earned runs (Johns error hurt). May relieved with 1 scoreless inning. The offense woke up a bit against Maxwell. Mendez hit a HR and the Sooners scored 6 runs and chased Maxwell in the 5th inning. The 6-4 win evened the series.

In G#3, Juarez also had short start. She pitched 2.0 IP allowing 5 runs with 4 earned. Saile's relief effort was not a good one before that freshman, May, entered to pitch 4.1 innings allowing 1 run and picked up the win. The Sooners finally upped their offense in their second look at Eberle as they scored 6 runs in 5.0 innings. But all of the Sooner runs were unearned and the Cowgirl defense committed 4 errors. Oklahoma won 11-8 in a slugfest with May being the best pitcher that day. Jennings and Mendez hit HRs.

2022 - The Sooner pitching staff had been stellar all season. Bahl was a superb #1 as a freshman, Trautwein was very good #2 and May was a strong #3. The offense was almost as good as it was in 2021. Which is simply great again.

In G#1, Bahl was terrific going the distance allowing 1 run. Maxwell was in the circle for OSU as OU roughed her up a bit with 7 runs on 6 hits and 6 walks in 6 IP. OU won 7-1. Jennings hit a HR.

In G#2, Hope Trautwein and Bahl pitched a shutout with Hope going 5.1 and Bahl pitching 1.2. Day pitched for OSU and gave up all 6 runs on 7 hits. OU won 6-0 with Lyons hitting a HR.

In G#3, with the rumor running around the stadium that Jordy Bahl might be injured, May took the circle to start the game. May pitched well going 6.1 before Trautwein finished pitching the final 0.2 IP. The Sooner offense as good against Maxwell as she gave up 5 runs, 4 earned on only 2 hits and 2 walks. OU won 5-3 to sweep the series.

In the Big 12 Tourney, OU and OSU played again in the finals. With Bahl unavailable and following Trautwein pitching 7 innings against I-State the day before, May took the circle and pitched fairly well as she gave up 3 hits and 2 runs in her 4.2 innings of pitching. Trautwein was brought in to pitch in the 5th inning. In 3.1 innings she gave up 5 hits and 2 runs. Maxwell pitched the first 3 innings for OSU with Day pitching the final 5 innings as the game went 8 innings. Day was the best pitcher on the day as she allowed only 1 run to Oklahoma. OSU won 4-3.

For 2023, I think the Oklahoma pitching is even better than it was in 2022. Especially with all 3 pitchers being healthy instead of losing Bahl after the middle game of the series. I think the OSU victory in the Big 12 Tourney was more about pitching a fatigued Trautwein than the lack of runs scored by OU, but both were responsible. If you look at the OU-OSU games over 2012 and 2022. OU wins if that score more they 4 runs. They also win if they give up less than 4 runs. Those are the keys to the game.

OU has not seen Kilfoyl as a pitcher but they are familiar with Maxwell. OU also has not seen Aycock or Rosenberry. I think this is the story of the 3-game series in Stillwater. Coach Kenny has a choice to make. Maxwell usually starts well against the Sooners, but as OU makes her throw strikes, OU solves Maxwell and usually wins the game. Will Coach Kenny start Kilfoyl, a sinker ball pitcher, on Day 1? Perhaps. Will Coach Kenny use the 'pitcher change' strategy in a game using the three unseen pitchers against OU? Perhaps.

Fou OU, the trio of Bahl, Storako and May have pitched lights out all season. I expect that to continue. But I will add this. It is very important for OU to continue their wonderful streak of low walks and HB they have going. If the Sooners avoid the walk/HB in front of a Cowgirl EBH, things will go well for OU this weekend. Don't walk and don't give up the big blow should be the mantra. It would be wonderful if OU pitches well enough to add a game, or two or three with 1 run or less allowed this weekend. They have done that here 38 times in 47 games. I expect them to do that twice this weekend.

On offense, they have to make Kilfoyl and Maxwell throw strikes. Both will try to pitch just off the plate or under the knees consistently. When they get ahead, they will move even farther from the strike zone unless forced to throw a strike by patient hitters. But, the Sooners need to be ready to hit the pitches in the 'zone' even on the first pitch of the at bat.

OU scored 21 runs in 2021 and lost a game and only outscored the Cowgirls by 3 runs.
OU scored 18 runs in 2022 and did not lose in the 3-game series. The Cowgirls were held to 4 runs for a 14 run defecit. In the Big 12 Tourney, OU scored 3 and OSU scored 4.

In 2023, the Sooners need their offense tuned up and running smoothly with those key hits to get runners across the plate. The Sooner pitching needs to throw strikes and keep the ball in the park. It is that simple. I think we will see three games with the scores being something like 6 -1 this weekend. Oklahoma's pitching is the difference combined with their defense. No team has scored more than 4 runs against the Sooners. Three have scored 4, OU won 2 of the 3. (I think that means OU needs to score 5 runs, right?)

I believe OU will sweep the Cowgirls with nothing to play for but pride this weekend. Some could say that OSU is playing for a Top 8 seed in the NCAA Tourney. I am not sure losing to OU will make a difference in that. Perhaps the sweep by Texas and losses to Wichita State and North Texas has done that already.

I think the Sooners will play with all the pride that they have as a Sooner this weekend in a very hostile environment. I hope the remember UCLA at Mary Nutter and Washington at the Mark Campbell and LSU at Baton Rouge as they prepare for this weekend. They did very well in those games as a good memory!

Boomer Sooner!

[TN Sooner]

Re: OSU seeding question - they are still holding steady at #4 in the NCAA RPI, which surprises me. The ranking is thru 5-3, so don’t know if it includes the NT loss or not. The polls generally have osu with a worse ranking, but still appears a top 8 seed is currently in the cards for the cowgirls.

My confidence level is high. I don’t fear them and I don’t think our ladies do either. Further, I think our ladies remain highly motivated.

[TropicalSooner]

Pretty good for me.
But it kind of depends on which team gets off the bus up there...the one with the high powered offense or the one that makes you bite your nails.
Our pitching has shown it can compete with anybody....and I really believe that. But Kilfoyl and Maxwell are no slouches. The games they've lost for the most part have been very low scoring games. Our pitchers will throw some great games...but we've got to put some runs up to win it. We've hit Maxwell pretty good before, so not worried there. But Kilfoyl has a nasty drop ball that for whatever reason just gives us fits. In her loss to Tech last week, she pitched 8 innings, had 4 FO and 14 GO's! We used to be able to hit that stuff....remember Gabby Plain? We run-ruled her out of the stadium. But lately...sheesh.
If we can figure that out....then we're good. If not, then I still think we take the series.

[1KCSoonerFan]

Thought I'd try to share a good article I read. (Also trying to figure out how to copy links.)

Hope this works!

https://www.ncaa.com/news/softball/arti ... all-really

[VNSooner]

The way OSU has been playing recently has been abysmal. OU needs come to Stillwater determined to sweep. Our hitting has been on a bit of vacation lately and needs to get back on track. I believe OU will put it all together and sweep the Cowgirls.

[inconnu]

Thought I'd try to share a good article I read. (Also trying to figure out how to copy links.)

Hope this works!

https://www.ncaa.com/news/softball/arti ... all-really

The video link you provided is MUST SEE for any OU fan(especially softball, but also for ANY OU fan of ANY sport, IMO)