The game will be closely contested if both teams play well. Here is a look at many of the stats:
Stat -------- Oklahoma - Texas
Record ------------- 12-1 - - - - - 13-1
Points/Game ------ 91.6 - - - - - 91.6
PTs allowed/G ---- 60.9 - - - - - 54.6
PTs Margin -------- +30.7 - - - - +37.0
2-PT Buckets ------- 336 - - - - - 427
2-PT % ------------- 56.7% - - - - 54.8%
3-PT Buckets ----- 119 - - - - - - 52
3-PT % ------------- 34.4% - - - - 29.1%
% 3-PT Shots ----- 36.8% - - - - 18.7%
Made F-Throws -- 162 - - - - - - 273
F-T % -------------- 68.1% - - - - 75.4%
Shooting % -------- 48.5% - - - - 50.1%
Shots/G ----------- 72.15 - - - - 68.36
Turnovers/G ------- 18.2 - - - - 13.2
Assists/G ----------- 23.1 - - - - 17.8
Steals/G ------------ 10.2 - - - - 12.9
Ratio A-S / TO ----- 1.62 - - - - 2.33
Rebounds/G ------- 51.0 - - - - - 42.6
Offensive Reb/G - 16.23 - - - - 17.21
REB Margin -------- +18.2- - - - +14.6
Blocks/G ------------ 4.53 - - - - 5.79
As you can see from the stats above, OU shoots more "three's", almost twice as many by percentage and Texas is more of a 2-point bucket team taking the ball into the paint. Oklahoma regulary plays 6 players that are under 6'0" while Texas plays only 2 players regularly that are under 6'0". Texas, playing closer to the basket, shoots more free throws and shoots a better percentage than does the Sooners. Texas handles the ball a bit better with a 2.33 Ratio of Assists-Steals compared to Tunovers compared to the 1.62 mark for Oklahoma.
My thoughts are that the game will boil down to a couple, maybe three phases of the game.
#1 - 3-Point Shooting --> Does OU shoot the ball well tonight from three-point territory? If they shoot at or above their season's average of 35%, they should be able to stay in the game. Oklahoma will also have to limit the # of 3-point shots by Texas to under their season's average of 13 shots and their 29% shooting.
#2 - Rebounding --> Who wins the battle of the boards? It is important for Oklahoma to win the battle of the boards and to limit the number of offensive rebounds Texas grabs. Texas will be trying to do the same thing against Oklahoma. If one team has a 8-10 rebound advantage they will likely be in control of the game.
#3 - Fouls --> OU plays 5 players inside regularly, maybe 6. (Beers, S Vann, L Scott, Johnson, Culliton and Williams). Texas plays 6 players inside regularly (Booker, Jones, Moore, Oldacre, Carlton and Mwenentanda) . But I think that Texas is deeper within those 6 players as five score 8 points a game and 3 players grabbing 6 rebounds a game. For OU only 4 players score 7 points or more per game and only 2 grab 6 rebounds. It is interesting that both teams have at least one big that also plays outside while scoring in Booker and S Vann. If OU gets into foul trouble with Beers, Vann, Williams or L Scott, the play drops off by a large margin for Oklahoma. I think the only player that is true for Texas is Booker and maybe Jones and Oldacre.
Matchups:
Here is how I see the player matchups for the game:
Starters:
- Beers vs Jones 6'4" => This matchup is big. Who can play and stay out of foul trouble. Texas can recover from Jones not being in the game. OU needs Beers on the floor.
- S Vann vs Moore 6'1" or Lee 6'0" depending on who starts => S Vann can win this battle. Vann usually plays very well in big games. Van will play inside when subs enter the game.
- Verhulst or Williams vs Booker 6'1" => This is a big matchup for Oklahoma. If the Sooners can slow down Booker and limit her 1-on-1 game, it will be good news for the Sooners.
- Williams or Verhulst vs Holle 6'0" => The off-guard for Texas has usually played well vs Oklahoma the last two years. OU needs to keep Holle under control.
- Tot vs Harmon 5'6" => Harmon is good. Tot needs to keep Harmon underwraps and not let her pentatrate the lane. Tot needs to make a couple of three's early.
- First three off the bench for OU: Z Vann, Keys and L Scott => Z Vann and Keys will matchup with Harmon, Holle and Preston outside. Z Vann needs to be aggressive but under control. Keys needs to make a couple of "key" three's early. L Scott and the starters will match up with Oldacre, Carlton and Mwenentanda inside.
- Johnson, Culliton and R Scott => Johnson and Culliton do not have to win the game when they play. They just need to limit the inside offense and rebound strong on the defensive end of the floor. They have to play solid defense. R Scott needs to relive Tot and Z Vann and keep the offense going. Her height on defense could come in handy as well agaisnt the off-guards or small forwards. (I wonder if we will see Aubrey Jones make it into the game tonight for OU. Her quick 3-point trigger might be helpful.
Oklahoma is probably quicker than Texas is on the floor. If OU can control the defensive boards and get the running game started and efficiently score off the break, Oklahoma's odds greatly increase for a win. Oklahoma will try to do this. We will see if they are successful in doing so.
I hope the referees allow the two teams to play tonight and that they do not call hand checks or call ticky-tack fouls on drives and out on the perimeter. Let the women play tonight.
Here is the pre-game article by the OU Athletics Communications group:
https://soonersports.com/news/2025/1/1/ ... ps-sec-era
I really hope it is a big crowd tonight in LNC. The article above says that the Sooners will honor Oklahoma legend, Danielle Robinson on Thursday night. Robinson recently announced her retirment after a 14-year professional basketball career on Wednesday. That will be nice to see as well tonight. Robinson averaged 15.2 points a game, 3.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.2 steals.
Good luck to the Sooners tonight.
Boomer Sooner!